Trader consensus favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by President Trump's April 1 statement downplaying the near-weapons-grade stockpile—estimated at 440-540 kilograms of 60% enriched material likely stored underground at Isfahan—as "not a concern" and solvable via satellite monitoring, signaling reluctance for high-risk action. Failed early-2026 US-Iran nuclear talks, including a rejected 15-point proposal demanding uranium handover, closed diplomatic paths, while IAEA inspectors remain barred since June 2025 strikes. Recent US military briefing of a complex special forces plan to excavate and extract the material highlights logistical perils, radiation hazards, and potential casualties, deterring near-term execution amid ongoing air operations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
NUEVO
$140,878 Vol.
NUEVO
$140,878 Vol.
31 may 2026
NUEVO
$140,878 Vol.
NUEVO
$140,878 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by President Trump's April 1 statement downplaying the near-weapons-grade stockpile—estimated at 440-540 kilograms of 60% enriched material likely stored underground at Isfahan—as "not a concern" and solvable via satellite monitoring, signaling reluctance for high-risk action. Failed early-2026 US-Iran nuclear talks, including a rejected 15-point proposal demanding uranium handover, closed diplomatic paths, while IAEA inspectors remain barred since June 2025 strikes. Recent US military briefing of a complex special forces plan to excavate and extract the material highlights logistical perils, radiation hazards, and potential casualties, deterring near-term execution amid ongoing air operations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$140,878Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by President Trump's April 1 statement downplaying the near-weapons-grade stockpile—estimated at 440-540 kilograms of 60% enriched material likely stored underground at Isfahan—as "not a concern" and solvable via satellite monitoring, signaling reluctance for high-risk action. Failed early-2026 US-Iran nuclear talks, including a rejected 15-point proposal demanding uranium handover, closed diplomatic paths, while IAEA inspectors remain barred since June 2025 strikes. Recent US military briefing of a complex special forces plan to excavate and extract the material highlights logistical perils, radiation hazards, and potential casualties, deterring near-term execution amid ongoing air operations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$140,878Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by President Trump's April 1 statement downplaying the near-weapons-grade stockpile—estimated at 440-540 kilograms of 60% enriched material likely stored underground at Isfahan—as "not a concern" and solvable via satellite monitoring, signaling reluctance for high-risk action. Failed early-2026 US-Iran nuclear talks, including a rejected 15-point proposal demanding uranium handover, closed diplomatic paths, while IAEA inspectors remain barred since June 2025 strikes. Recent US military briefing of a complex special forces plan to excavate and extract the material highlights logistical perils, radiation hazards, and potential casualties, deterring near-term execution amid ongoing air operations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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