Trader consensus leans heavily toward "No" at 72.5% on U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by April 30, driven by the absence of any State Department announcement ordering full withdrawal despite escalating Israel-Hezbollah border clashes in southern Lebanon. In October 2023, the U.S. authorized voluntary departure of non-essential personnel and dependents from the embassy, but it has remained operational with enhanced security protocols. Recent State Department advisories maintain Level 4 "Do Not Travel" warnings for Lebanon without evacuation signals, while diplomatic cables emphasize fortified defenses. No scheduled events, such as major escalations or policy shifts, point to imminent closure, aligning with historical patterns where partial staff reductions precede full evacuations only under direct threats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
NEW
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Apr 30, 2026
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Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volumen
$99Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volumen
$99Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus leans heavily toward "No" at 72.5% on U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by April 30, driven by the absence of any State Department announcement ordering full withdrawal despite escalating Israel-Hezbollah border clashes in southern Lebanon. In October 2023, the U.S. authorized voluntary departure of non-essential personnel and dependents from the embassy, but it has remained operational with enhanced security protocols. Recent State Department advisories maintain Level 4 "Do Not Travel" warnings for Lebanon without evacuation signals, while diplomatic cables emphasize fortified defenses. No scheduled events, such as major escalations or policy shifts, point to imminent closure, aligning with historical patterns where partial staff reductions precede full evacuations only under direct threats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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