Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability for "No" on a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, stemming from the lack of any official declaration by President Erdoğan or parliament through late March. Despite AK Party's February roadmap for constitutional reform—emphasizing broad consultations without a draft text—the AKP-MHP coalition's 318 seats fall short of the 330 required to force a referendum, necessitating opposition support amid economic stabilization priorities and prior local election losses. Recent parliamentary debates centered on 2026 budget execution, with no amendment bills introduced or votes scheduled, underscoring procedural hurdles and diminished momentum since 2025 signals. Late-year escalation remains possible but faces significant barriers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability for "No" on a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, stemming from the lack of any official declaration by President Erdoğan or parliament through late March. Despite AK Party's February roadmap for constitutional reform—emphasizing broad consultations without a draft text—the AKP-MHP coalition's 318 seats fall short of the 330 required to force a referendum, necessitating opposition support amid economic stabilization priorities and prior local election losses. Recent parliamentary debates centered on 2026 budget execution, with no amendment bills introduced or votes scheduled, underscoring procedural hurdles and diminished momentum since 2025 signals. Late-year escalation remains possible but faces significant barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volumen
$208Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability for "No" on a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, stemming from the lack of any official declaration by President Erdoğan or parliament through late March. Despite AK Party's February roadmap for constitutional reform—emphasizing broad consultations without a draft text—the AKP-MHP coalition's 318 seats fall short of the 330 required to force a referendum, necessitating opposition support amid economic stabilization priorities and prior local election losses. Recent parliamentary debates centered on 2026 budget execution, with no amendment bills introduced or votes scheduled, underscoring procedural hurdles and diminished momentum since 2025 signals. Late-year escalation remains possible but faces significant barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$208Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability for "No" on a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026, stemming from the lack of any official declaration by President Erdoğan or parliament through late March. Despite AK Party's February roadmap for constitutional reform—emphasizing broad consultations without a draft text—the AKP-MHP coalition's 318 seats fall short of the 330 required to force a referendum, necessitating opposition support amid economic stabilization priorities and prior local election losses. Recent parliamentary debates centered on 2026 budget execution, with no amendment bills introduced or votes scheduled, underscoring procedural hurdles and diminished momentum since 2025 signals. Late-year escalation remains possible but faces significant barriers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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