Incumbent Republican Rep. Dan Meuser holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District, a solidly red northeast Pennsylvania seat where Donald Trump won by 38 points in the 2024 presidential election, anchoring trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, citing Meuser's fundraising edge—over $1.4 million raised—and history of easy reelection victories amid a district partisan voter index heavily favoring GOP incumbents. Multiple Democrats entered the primary by late 2025, but lack competitive polling or resources, while a recent independent candidacy announced by Jenn Brothers on March 25 poses minimal threat to consolidating Republican turnout. With primaries slated for late spring, odds could shift via a major Meuser scandal, national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in swing state Pennsylvania, or unforeseen legal challenges, though historical base rates for safe seats suggest stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPA-09 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
PA-09 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Demócrata
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
92%
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Dan Meuser holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District, a solidly red northeast Pennsylvania seat where Donald Trump won by 38 points in the 2024 presidential election, anchoring trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, citing Meuser's fundraising edge—over $1.4 million raised—and history of easy reelection victories amid a district partisan voter index heavily favoring GOP incumbents. Multiple Democrats entered the primary by late 2025, but lack competitive polling or resources, while a recent independent candidacy announced by Jenn Brothers on March 25 poses minimal threat to consolidating Republican turnout. With primaries slated for late spring, odds could shift via a major Meuser scandal, national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in swing state Pennsylvania, or unforeseen legal challenges, though historical base rates for safe seats suggest stability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Dan Meuser holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District, a solidly red northeast Pennsylvania seat where Donald Trump won by 38 points in the 2024 presidential election, anchoring trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, citing Meuser's fundraising edge—over $1.4 million raised—and history of easy reelection victories amid a district partisan voter index heavily favoring GOP incumbents. Multiple Democrats entered the primary by late 2025, but lack competitive polling or resources, while a recent independent candidacy announced by Jenn Brothers on March 25 poses minimal threat to consolidating Republican turnout. With primaries slated for late spring, odds could shift via a major Meuser scandal, national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in swing state Pennsylvania, or unforeseen legal challenges, though historical base rates for safe seats suggest stability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Dan Meuser holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District, a solidly red northeast Pennsylvania seat where Donald Trump won by 38 points in the 2024 presidential election, anchoring trader consensus at 92% for the Republican Party. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, citing Meuser's fundraising edge—over $1.4 million raised—and history of easy reelection victories amid a district partisan voter index heavily favoring GOP incumbents. Multiple Democrats entered the primary by late 2025, but lack competitive polling or resources, while a recent independent candidacy announced by Jenn Brothers on March 25 poses minimal threat to consolidating Republican turnout. With primaries slated for late spring, odds could shift via a major Meuser scandal, national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in swing state Pennsylvania, or unforeseen legal challenges, though historical base rates for safe seats suggest stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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