Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party securing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in the June 3, 2026, National Assembly by-elections, coinciding with local elections, due to its dominance in recent polls—such as the March 19-20 STI survey showing 50.2% support versus People Power Party's 14.5%—and many vacancies in DP strongholds from incumbents like Park Chan-dae and Kim Sang-wook running for mayor or governor posts. Up to 15 seats could open if additional resignations occur, amplifying sweep potential; 8-9 seats at 37.8% accounts for possible PPP pickups in conservative areas like Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap. Internal DP nomination disputes in Ansan-gap and Yeonsu-gap have surfaced but not eroded momentum amid President Lee Jae-myung's high approval, while PPP grapples with leadership turmoil and candidate shortages. Primaries wrap by mid-April, with outcomes likely cementing DP's edge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado# de escaños ganados por DP en las elecciones parciales de Corea del Sur?
# de escaños ganados por DP en las elecciones parciales de Corea del Sur?
10+ 55.5%
8-9 37.8%
6-7 4.0%
2-3 2.2%
$19,874 Vol.
$19,874 Vol.
Jun 3, 2026
0-1
<1%
2-3
2%
4-5
1%
6-7
4%
8-9
38%
10+
56%
10+ 55.5%
8-9 37.8%
6-7 4.0%
2-3 2.2%
$19,874 Vol.
$19,874 Vol.
Jun 3, 2026
0-1
$1,927 Vol.
<1%
2-3
$3,668 Vol.
2%
4-5
$2,140 Vol.
1%
6-7
$2,103 Vol.
4%
8-9
$2,519 Vol.
38%
10+
$7,518 Vol.
56%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party securing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in the June 3, 2026, National Assembly by-elections, coinciding with local elections, due to its dominance in recent polls—such as the March 19-20 STI survey showing 50.2% support versus People Power Party's 14.5%—and many vacancies in DP strongholds from incumbents like Park Chan-dae and Kim Sang-wook running for mayor or governor posts. Up to 15 seats could open if additional resignations occur, amplifying sweep potential; 8-9 seats at 37.8% accounts for possible PPP pickups in conservative areas like Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap. Internal DP nomination disputes in Ansan-gap and Yeonsu-gap have surfaced but not eroded momentum amid President Lee Jae-myung's high approval, while PPP grapples with leadership turmoil and candidate shortages. Primaries wrap by mid-April, with outcomes likely cementing DP's edge.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Volumen
$19,874Fecha de finalización
Jun 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party securing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in the June 3, 2026, National Assembly by-elections, coinciding with local elections, due to its dominance in recent polls—such as the March 19-20 STI survey showing 50.2% support versus People Power Party's 14.5%—and many vacancies in DP strongholds from incumbents like Park Chan-dae and Kim Sang-wook running for mayor or governor posts. Up to 15 seats could open if additional resignations occur, amplifying sweep potential; 8-9 seats at 37.8% accounts for possible PPP pickups in conservative areas like Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap. Internal DP nomination disputes in Ansan-gap and Yeonsu-gap have surfaced but not eroded momentum amid President Lee Jae-myung's high approval, while PPP grapples with leadership turmoil and candidate shortages. Primaries wrap by mid-April, with outcomes likely cementing DP's edge.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Volumen
$19,874Fecha de finalización
Jun 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party securing 10+ seats at 55.5% implied probability in the June 3, 2026, National Assembly by-elections, coinciding with local elections, due to its dominance in recent polls—such as the March 19-20 STI survey showing 50.2% support versus People Power Party's 14.5%—and many vacancies in DP strongholds from incumbents like Park Chan-dae and Kim Sang-wook running for mayor or governor posts. Up to 15 seats could open if additional resignations occur, amplifying sweep potential; 8-9 seats at 37.8% accounts for possible PPP pickups in conservative areas like Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap. Internal DP nomination disputes in Ansan-gap and Yeonsu-gap have surfaced but not eroded momentum amid President Lee Jae-myung's high approval, while PPP grapples with leadership turmoil and candidate shortages. Primaries wrap by mid-April, with outcomes likely cementing DP's edge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes