US and Israeli forces continue airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC command centers, missile sites, and defense industries, now over five weeks since the February 28 opening salvo that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent developments driving trader sentiment include Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's March 31 warning of "decisive" days ahead amid ongoing operations, and President Trump's signals of an end within two to three weeks via backchannel negotiations potentially involving Pakistan. Iran's retaliatory missile and proxy attacks persist, complicating de-escalation, while Strait of Hormuz tensions and regime succession uncertainties loom. Upcoming strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could tip the balance toward ceasefire or prolonged conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$40,614 Vol.
30 abr 2026
April 1
1%
April 2
2%
April 3
4%
April 4
14%
April 5
39%
April 6
34%
April 7
42%
April 8
42%
April 9
20%
April 10
42%
April 11
42%
April 12
41%
April 13
42%
April 14
20%
April 15
34%
April 16
39%
April 17
44%
April 18
44%
April 19
44%
April 20
44%
April 21
44%
April 22
44%
April 23
44%
April 24
45%
April 25
28%
April 26
44%
April 27
44%
April 28
44%
April 29
44%
April 30
45%
$40,614 Vol.
April 1
$4,242 Vol.
1%
April 2
$4,117 Vol.
2%
April 3
$2,346 Vol.
4%
April 4
$39 Vol.
14%
April 5
$0 Vol.
39%
April 6
$6 Vol.
34%
April 7
$0 Vol.
42%
April 8
$1 Vol.
42%
April 9
$2,785 Vol.
20%
April 10
$0 Vol.
42%
April 11
$0 Vol.
42%
April 12
$0 Vol.
41%
April 13
$0 Vol.
42%
April 14
$4,353 Vol.
20%
April 15
$140 Vol.
34%
April 16
$0 Vol.
39%
April 17
$0 Vol.
44%
April 18
$0 Vol.
44%
April 19
$0 Vol.
44%
April 20
$0 Vol.
44%
April 21
$0 Vol.
44%
April 22
$0 Vol.
44%
April 23
$0 Vol.
44%
April 24
$0 Vol.
45%
April 25
$2,745 Vol.
28%
April 26
$0 Vol.
44%
April 27
$38 Vol.
44%
April 28
$0 Vol.
44%
April 29
$0 Vol.
44%
April 30
$19,802 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC command centers, missile sites, and defense industries, now over five weeks since the February 28 opening salvo that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent developments driving trader sentiment include Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's March 31 warning of "decisive" days ahead amid ongoing operations, and President Trump's signals of an end within two to three weeks via backchannel negotiations potentially involving Pakistan. Iran's retaliatory missile and proxy attacks persist, complicating de-escalation, while Strait of Hormuz tensions and regime succession uncertainties loom. Upcoming strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could tip the balance toward ceasefire or prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volumen
$40,614Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC command centers, missile sites, and defense industries, now over five weeks since the February 28 opening salvo that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent developments driving trader sentiment include Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's March 31 warning of "decisive" days ahead amid ongoing operations, and President Trump's signals of an end within two to three weeks via backchannel negotiations potentially involving Pakistan. Iran's retaliatory missile and proxy attacks persist, complicating de-escalation, while Strait of Hormuz tensions and regime succession uncertainties loom. Upcoming strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could tip the balance toward ceasefire or prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$40,614Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces continue airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC command centers, missile sites, and defense industries, now over five weeks since the February 28 opening salvo that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent developments driving trader sentiment include Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's March 31 warning of "decisive" days ahead amid ongoing operations, and President Trump's signals of an end within two to three weeks via backchannel negotiations potentially involving Pakistan. Iran's retaliatory missile and proxy attacks persist, complicating de-escalation, while Strait of Hormuz tensions and regime succession uncertainties loom. Upcoming strikes or diplomatic breakthroughs could tip the balance toward ceasefire or prolonged conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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