Market icon
Economía·México

¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?

Market icon
Economía·México

¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?

abr 30

abr 30

0.5-1.0% 44%

1.0-1.5% 30%

0.0-0.5% 19.7%

1.5-2.0% 8.0%

Polymarket
NUEVO

0.5-1.0% 44%

1.0-1.5% 30%

0.0-0.5% 19.7%

1.5-2.0% 8.0%

Polymarket
NUEVO

<0.0%

$192 Vol.

4%

0.0-0.5%

$278 Vol.

20%

0.5-1.0%

$351 Vol.

44%

1.0-1.5%

$376 Vol.

30%

1.5-2.0%

$179 Vol.

8%

2,0-2,5%

$0 Vol.

1%

>2,5%

$127 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Mexico Q1 2026 GDP expansion at 0.5-1.0% (43.5% implied probability) and 1.0-1.5% (29.5%), reflecting weak early-quarter indicators amid resilient consumption. January's INEGI Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) contracted 0.9% month-on-month—the sharpest drop in recent months—with secondary sector output down 1.1%, signaling manufacturing headwinds despite February PMI stabilization at 47.1. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 underscored growth concerns over sticky 4.63% inflation, while strong January retail sales (+5.0% year-on-year) and February exports (+15.8%) offer offsets. Full-year forecasts cluster at 1.2-1.8% (Banxico/OECD/BBVA), implying low Q1 base effects; watch late-April INEGI preliminary release.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,503
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Mexico Q1 2026 GDP expansion at 0.5-1.0% (43.5% implied probability) and 1.0-1.5% (29.5%), reflecting weak early-quarter indicators amid resilient consumption. January's INEGI Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) contracted 0.9% month-on-month—the sharpest drop in recent months—with secondary sector output down 1.1%, signaling manufacturing headwinds despite February PMI stabilization at 47.1. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 underscored growth concerns over sticky 4.63% inflation, while strong January retail sales (+5.0% year-on-year) and February exports (+15.8%) offer offsets. Full-year forecasts cluster at 1.2-1.8% (Banxico/OECD/BBVA), implying low Q1 base effects; watch late-April INEGI preliminary release.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,503
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "0.5-1.0%" con 44%, seguido de "1.0-1.5%" con 30%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 44¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 44% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jan 31, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?" es "0.5-1.0%" con 44%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 44% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1.0-1.5%" con 30%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Crecimiento del PIB de México en el primer trimestre de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.