Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's federal narcoterrorism case in New York remains in pretrial limbo nearly three months after his January U.S. capture and ouster, driving tight trader consensus between no prison time at 33.5% and 60+ years at 28%. A March 26 ruling by Judge Alvin Hellerstein denied defense motions to dismiss drug trafficking charges alleging Maduro led a cartel shipping tons of cocaine, but showed sympathy for claims that U.S. sanctions block access to frozen assets for a fair defense. This procedural standoff, amid evidentiary disputes and no trial date set, sustains uncertainty over acquittal, plea deal, or conviction carrying life exposure; upcoming hearings on fund access or discovery breakthroughs could tip probabilities sharply.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Hora de prisión de Maduro?
¿Hora de prisión de Maduro?
Sin tiempo en prisión 34%
60+ 28%
40–60 16%
<20 14.9%
$444,549 Vol.
$444,549 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Sin tiempo en prisión
34%
<20
15%
20–40
11%
40–60
16%
60+
28%
Sin tiempo en prisión 34%
60+ 28%
40–60 16%
<20 14.9%
$444,549 Vol.
$444,549 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Sin tiempo en prisión
$349,021 Vol.
34%
<20
$27,726 Vol.
15%
20–40
$26,694 Vol.
11%
40–60
$12,539 Vol.
16%
60+
$28,569 Vol.
28%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's federal narcoterrorism case in New York remains in pretrial limbo nearly three months after his January U.S. capture and ouster, driving tight trader consensus between no prison time at 33.5% and 60+ years at 28%. A March 26 ruling by Judge Alvin Hellerstein denied defense motions to dismiss drug trafficking charges alleging Maduro led a cartel shipping tons of cocaine, but showed sympathy for claims that U.S. sanctions block access to frozen assets for a fair defense. This procedural standoff, amid evidentiary disputes and no trial date set, sustains uncertainty over acquittal, plea deal, or conviction carrying life exposure; upcoming hearings on fund access or discovery breakthroughs could tip probabilities sharply.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volumen
$444,549Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's federal narcoterrorism case in New York remains in pretrial limbo nearly three months after his January U.S. capture and ouster, driving tight trader consensus between no prison time at 33.5% and 60+ years at 28%. A March 26 ruling by Judge Alvin Hellerstein denied defense motions to dismiss drug trafficking charges alleging Maduro led a cartel shipping tons of cocaine, but showed sympathy for claims that U.S. sanctions block access to frozen assets for a fair defense. This procedural standoff, amid evidentiary disputes and no trial date set, sustains uncertainty over acquittal, plea deal, or conviction carrying life exposure; upcoming hearings on fund access or discovery breakthroughs could tip probabilities sharply.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$444,549Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's federal narcoterrorism case in New York remains in pretrial limbo nearly three months after his January U.S. capture and ouster, driving tight trader consensus between no prison time at 33.5% and 60+ years at 28%. A March 26 ruling by Judge Alvin Hellerstein denied defense motions to dismiss drug trafficking charges alleging Maduro led a cartel shipping tons of cocaine, but showed sympathy for claims that U.S. sanctions block access to frozen assets for a fair defense. This procedural standoff, amid evidentiary disputes and no trial date set, sustains uncertainty over acquittal, plea deal, or conviction carrying life exposure; upcoming hearings on fund access or discovery breakthroughs could tip probabilities sharply.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes