The US-Israel war with Iran, launched on February 28, 2026, with airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, remains active into its fifth week as of April 2. President Trump's April 1 address declared the conflict "nearing completion," signaling potential de-escalation once Iran's nuclear threat is neutralized, even without a formal deal, amid US Marine deployments and strikes on Tehran oil depots and Bushehr. Iran rejected a US 15-point peace plan, launching one of its largest missile barrages at central Israel and Tel Aviv, causing injuries, while proxies like Houthis escalate regional attacks. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan Sunday to seek an end, but no ceasefire holds, sustaining trader focus on escalation risks versus diplomatic off-ramps.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
$11,548,909 Vol.
15 mar 2026
31 de marzo
<1%
15 de abril
10%
7 de abril
3%
30 de abril
32%
15 de mayo
49%
30 de junio
70%
31 de diciembre
88%
$11,548,909 Vol.
31 de marzo
$4,989,748 Vol.
<1%
15 de abril
$1,664,538 Vol.
10%
7 de abril
$791,664 Vol.
3%
30 de abril
$1,051,757 Vol.
32%
15 de mayo
$1,524,777 Vol.
49%
30 de junio
$1,119,861 Vol.
70%
31 de diciembre
$417,611 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war with Iran, launched on February 28, 2026, with airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, remains active into its fifth week as of April 2. President Trump's April 1 address declared the conflict "nearing completion," signaling potential de-escalation once Iran's nuclear threat is neutralized, even without a formal deal, amid US Marine deployments and strikes on Tehran oil depots and Bushehr. Iran rejected a US 15-point peace plan, launching one of its largest missile barrages at central Israel and Tel Aviv, causing injuries, while proxies like Houthis escalate regional attacks. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan Sunday to seek an end, but no ceasefire holds, sustaining trader focus on escalation risks versus diplomatic off-ramps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volumen
$11,548,909Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war with Iran, launched on February 28, 2026, with airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, remains active into its fifth week as of April 2. President Trump's April 1 address declared the conflict "nearing completion," signaling potential de-escalation once Iran's nuclear threat is neutralized, even without a formal deal, amid US Marine deployments and strikes on Tehran oil depots and Bushehr. Iran rejected a US 15-point peace plan, launching one of its largest missile barrages at central Israel and Tel Aviv, causing injuries, while proxies like Houthis escalate regional attacks. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan Sunday to seek an end, but no ceasefire holds, sustaining trader focus on escalation risks versus diplomatic off-ramps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volumen
$11,548,909Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The US-Israel war with Iran, launched on February 28, 2026, with airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear sites, military infrastructure, and leadership, remains active into its fifth week as of April 2. President Trump's April 1 address declared the conflict "nearing completion," signaling potential de-escalation once Iran's nuclear threat is neutralized, even without a formal deal, amid US Marine deployments and strikes on Tehran oil depots and Bushehr. Iran rejected a US 15-point peace plan, launching one of its largest missile barrages at central Israel and Tel Aviv, causing injuries, while proxies like Houthis escalate regional attacks. Regional powers plan talks in Pakistan Sunday to seek an end, but no ceasefire holds, sustaining trader focus on escalation risks versus diplomatic off-ramps.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes