Traders are closely split on NYC's highest temperature on March 28, with market-implied odds favoring 44-45°F at 26% and 42-43°F at 25%, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model ensembles clustering around 43°F amid a cool nor'easter residual. Differentiating factors include upper-level trough persistence versus potential ridging, where lingering low clouds and northwesterly winds cap highs below 44°F, while brief afternoon clearing could push toward 45°F; NOAA's short-range guidance supports this tight range, with historical late-March averages near 48°F but current cold air mass suppressing outliers. Upcoming 12Z model updates will likely refine these odds as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 28 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 28 de marzo?
44-45°F 26%
42-43°F 25%
40-41°F 22%
48-49°F 13%
35°F o menos
2%
36-37°F
6%
38-39°F
8%
40-41°F
22%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
26%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
13%
50-51°F
6%
52-53°F
4%
54°F o más
3%
44-45°F 26%
42-43°F 25%
40-41°F 22%
48-49°F 13%
35°F o menos
2%
36-37°F
6%
38-39°F
8%
40-41°F
22%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
26%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
13%
50-51°F
6%
52-53°F
4%
54°F o más
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are closely split on NYC's highest temperature on March 28, with market-implied odds favoring 44-45°F at 26% and 42-43°F at 25%, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model ensembles clustering around 43°F amid a cool nor'easter residual. Differentiating factors include upper-level trough persistence versus potential ridging, where lingering low clouds and northwesterly winds cap highs below 44°F, while brief afternoon clearing could push toward 45°F; NOAA's short-range guidance supports this tight range, with historical late-March averages near 48°F but current cold air mass suppressing outliers. Upcoming 12Z model updates will likely refine these odds as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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