Trader consensus has locked in 70-71°F as virtually certain for Chicago's highest temperature on March 20, driven by converging forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models showing a persistent upper-level ridge ushering mild air with highs peaking in that narrow band at O'Hare International Airport, the likely resolution source. National Weather Service guidance reinforces this, projecting partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds holding daytime temps steady around 70°F amid low humidity. Historical March data supports feasibility, with similar ridge patterns yielding above-normal warmth 30-40% of the time. Challenges could arise from an unexpected shortwave trough disrupting the ridge, a cold frontal passage, or marine layer effects, though current ensemble spreads are tight, implying low upset risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on March 20?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 20?
70-71°F 100.0%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$261,928 Vol.
$261,928 Vol.
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 100.0%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$261,928 Vol.
$261,928 Vol.
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has locked in 70-71°F as virtually certain for Chicago's highest temperature on March 20, driven by converging forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models showing a persistent upper-level ridge ushering mild air with highs peaking in that narrow band at O'Hare International Airport, the likely resolution source. National Weather Service guidance reinforces this, projecting partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds holding daytime temps steady around 70°F amid low humidity. Historical March data supports feasibility, with similar ridge patterns yielding above-normal warmth 30-40% of the time. Challenges could arise from an unexpected shortwave trough disrupting the ridge, a cold frontal passage, or marine layer effects, though current ensemble spreads are tight, implying low upset risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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