Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Shanghai's highest temperature on March 22 at 18°C (33.5%) or 19°C (26.5%), reflecting closely aligned short-range forecasts from authoritative models like ECMWF and GFS, which project mild conditions amid southerly winds and above-normal spring warmth. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates indicate a high near 18-19°C under partly cloudy skies, boosted by Shanghai's urban heat island effect that routinely adds 1-2°C to rural baselines. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spread—GFS leans slightly cooler toward 17°C due to potential evening cloud cover, while ECMWF's warmer bias aligns with 19°C—against March historical highs averaging 14-16°C. Traders eye hourly updates from Pudong and Hongqiao stations for resolution, with low odds on extremes underscoring forecast convergence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
18°C 34%
19°C 26%
17°C 15%
16°C 4.6%
$109,387 Vol.
$109,387 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
5%
17°C
15%
18°C
34%
19°C
26%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
2%
18°C 34%
19°C 26%
17°C 15%
16°C 4.6%
$109,387 Vol.
$109,387 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
5%
17°C
15%
18°C
34%
19°C
26%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Shanghai's highest temperature on March 22 at 18°C (33.5%) or 19°C (26.5%), reflecting closely aligned short-range forecasts from authoritative models like ECMWF and GFS, which project mild conditions amid southerly winds and above-normal spring warmth. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates indicate a high near 18-19°C under partly cloudy skies, boosted by Shanghai's urban heat island effect that routinely adds 1-2°C to rural baselines. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spread—GFS leans slightly cooler toward 17°C due to potential evening cloud cover, while ECMWF's warmer bias aligns with 19°C—against March historical highs averaging 14-16°C. Traders eye hourly updates from Pudong and Hongqiao stations for resolution, with low odds on extremes underscoring forecast convergence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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