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Fed decision in January?
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
21%
$18m Vol.
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Kevin Hassett
52%
Kevin Warsh
39%
$44m Vol.
Maduro out by...?
December 31, 2025
8%
January 31, 2026
19%
$25m Vol.
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
14%
chance
Yes
No
$189k Vol.
Vikings
29%
Cowboys
71%
Live
$3m Vol.
Kings
6%
Timberwolves
95%
$2m Vol.
Lakers
40%
Suns
61%
Chile Presidential Election
José Antonio Kast
100%
Jeannette Jara
<1%
$86m Vol.
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2025?
0
91%
1-100
$7m Vol.
David Friedberg
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by...?
December 15
December 31
35%
$418k Vol.
Will Trump release Epstein files by...?
December 19
65%
76%
$5m Vol.
Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
>$1B
89%
>$2B
84%
$23m Vol.
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
93%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?
$98k Vol.
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Kristi Noem
24%
Pete Hegseth
$108k Vol.
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?
$290k Vol.
Boxing: Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua
Jake Paul
11%
Anthony Joshua
85%
$1m Vol.
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
18%
$102k Vol.
US x Venezuela military engagement by...?
$38m Vol.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
3%
$55m Vol.
Largest Company end of 2025?
NVIDIA
82%
Apple
$54m Vol.
Honduras Presidential Election
Nasry "Tito" Asfura
92%
Salvador Nasralla
7%
$21m Vol.
Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
Ken Paxton
59%
John Cornyn
28%
$596k Vol.
2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship Winner
Sam Soverel
Erik Seidel
$229m Vol.
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