Spain tops trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their No. 1 FIFA ranking, Euro 2024 triumph, and young stars like Lamine Yamal maintaining momentum in March friendlies after the canceled Finalissima versus Argentina. England (12.8%), France (10.9%), and defending champions Argentina (10.0%) trail closely, reflecting a fiercely competitive field where all have qualified early via dominant UEFA and CONMEBOL campaigns. France's 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil on March 26—despite playing a man down, with Mbappé scoring—underscores their depth, while Brazil (8.6%) slipped amid inconsistencies. Recent intercontinental playoffs (e.g., Bolivia's win March 26) finalized the 48-team draw, but tight odds highlight knockout unpredictability, balanced squads, and home advantages for hosts USA, Canada, Mexico in the expanded format.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.0%
$403,775,511 Vol.
$403,775,511 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.0%
$403,775,511 Vol.
$403,775,511 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain tops trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their No. 1 FIFA ranking, Euro 2024 triumph, and young stars like Lamine Yamal maintaining momentum in March friendlies after the canceled Finalissima versus Argentina. England (12.8%), France (10.9%), and defending champions Argentina (10.0%) trail closely, reflecting a fiercely competitive field where all have qualified early via dominant UEFA and CONMEBOL campaigns. France's 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil on March 26—despite playing a man down, with Mbappé scoring—underscores their depth, while Brazil (8.6%) slipped amid inconsistencies. Recent intercontinental playoffs (e.g., Bolivia's win March 26) finalized the 48-team draw, but tight odds highlight knockout unpredictability, balanced squads, and home advantages for hosts USA, Canada, Mexico in the expanded format.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions