Flávio Bolsonaro advanced to the October 25 runoff after leading the first round with 47% to Lula’s 45%, exceeding pre-election polling expectations and consolidating support from eliminated right-wing candidates. Recent national surveys show the Liberal Party senator holding a narrow edge or technical tie in valid votes, driven by stronger backing in the Southeast and South, among evangelicals, and wealthier voters, while Lula retains advantages among lower-income groups, Catholics, and in the Northeast. Lula’s government faces stable but mixed approval ratings, with roughly 41% rating it bad or very bad amid economic concerns. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these dynamics, positioning Flávio as the clear favorite nine days before voting amid ongoing campaign mobilization on both sides.