Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by topping UEFA Group E unbeaten and strong recent form highlighted in ESPN power rankings, where they lead ahead of France. The race remains tightly contested with England (12.8%), France (10.9%), and Argentina (10.0%) close behind, reflecting parity among qualified European powerhouses like Portugal, Germany, Netherlands, and Norway—fueled by stars such as Haaland and Ronaldo—plus South American giants Brazil and defending champions Argentina. Recent UEFA playoff semifinals on March 26-27 advanced teams like Italy and Sweden to finals on March 31 without disrupting top seeds, while friendlies showcased elite squads' depth amid the expanded 48-team field hosted across North America.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.0%
$404,106,486 Vol.
$404,106,486 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.8%
England 12.8%
France 10.9%
Argentina 10.0%
$404,106,486 Vol.
$404,106,486 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Ghana
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by topping UEFA Group E unbeaten and strong recent form highlighted in ESPN power rankings, where they lead ahead of France. The race remains tightly contested with England (12.8%), France (10.9%), and Argentina (10.0%) close behind, reflecting parity among qualified European powerhouses like Portugal, Germany, Netherlands, and Norway—fueled by stars such as Haaland and Ronaldo—plus South American giants Brazil and defending champions Argentina. Recent UEFA playoff semifinals on March 26-27 advanced teams like Italy and Sweden to finals on March 31 without disrupting top seeds, while friendlies showcased elite squads' depth amid the expanded 48-team field hosted across North America.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions