Spain leads trader consensus at 16.1% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, driven by their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign—topping their group with consistent wins—and sharp March friendlies like a 3-1 victory over Serbia, highlighting Lamine Yamal's emergence and midfield depth. England (12.7%) and France (12.2%) keep pace via talent-laden squads, with recent results including England's 2-0 defeat of Uruguay and France's 3-1 friendly rout of Colombia underscoring attacking efficiency amid injury recoveries. Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) trail after scrappy CONMEBOL qualification amid domestic turmoil, yet defending champions' pedigree and South American firepower sustain a tight race in the expanded 48-team draw, where top seeds like these are protected until semifinals and upsets loom large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 16.1%
England 12.7%
France 12.1%
Argentina 9.3%
$448,833,971 Vol.
$448,833,971 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
12%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Japan
2%
Morocco
2%
Uruguay
1%
Switzerland
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 16.1%
England 12.7%
France 12.1%
Argentina 9.3%
$448,833,971 Vol.
$448,833,971 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
12%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Japan
2%
Morocco
2%
Uruguay
1%
Switzerland
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 16.1% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, driven by their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign—topping their group with consistent wins—and sharp March friendlies like a 3-1 victory over Serbia, highlighting Lamine Yamal's emergence and midfield depth. England (12.7%) and France (12.2%) keep pace via talent-laden squads, with recent results including England's 2-0 defeat of Uruguay and France's 3-1 friendly rout of Colombia underscoring attacking efficiency amid injury recoveries. Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) trail after scrappy CONMEBOL qualification amid domestic turmoil, yet defending champions' pedigree and South American firepower sustain a tight race in the expanded 48-team draw, where top seeds like these are protected until semifinals and upsets loom large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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