Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16.4% implied probability, driven by their dominant Nations League form and March internationals squad refresh with Lamine Yamal and Rodri returning from injury, bolstering an elite midfield alongside Pedri and Zubimendi. France (12.6%) and England (12.5%) trail closely after France's resilient 2-1 friendly win over Brazil—Mbappé scoring despite a late red card—and England's steady qualifier path, underscoring the tight race amid Europe's playoff upsets like Bosnia ousting Italy. Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive as defending champions and traditional powers, but recent stumbles highlight the expanded 48-team field's unpredictability, home advantages for hosts USA-Mexico-Canada, and depth across confederations keeping probabilities bunched.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 16.4%
France 12.6%
England 12.5%
Argentina 9.3%
$451,063,732 Vol.
$451,063,732 Vol.
Spain
16%
France
13%
England
13%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
Japan
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Uruguay
1%
Switzerland
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 16.4%
France 12.6%
England 12.5%
Argentina 9.3%
$451,063,732 Vol.
$451,063,732 Vol.
Spain
16%
France
13%
England
13%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
Japan
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Uruguay
1%
Switzerland
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16.4% implied probability, driven by their dominant Nations League form and March internationals squad refresh with Lamine Yamal and Rodri returning from injury, bolstering an elite midfield alongside Pedri and Zubimendi. France (12.6%) and England (12.5%) trail closely after France's resilient 2-1 friendly win over Brazil—Mbappé scoring despite a late red card—and England's steady qualifier path, underscoring the tight race amid Europe's playoff upsets like Bosnia ousting Italy. Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive as defending champions and traditional powers, but recent stumbles highlight the expanded 48-team field's unpredictability, home advantages for hosts USA-Mexico-Canada, and depth across confederations keeping probabilities bunched.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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