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2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Market icon

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Spain 16.4%

France 12.6%

England 12.5%

Argentina 9.3%

Polymarket

$451,063,732 Vol.

Spain 16.4%

France 12.6%

England 12.5%

Argentina 9.3%

Polymarket

$451,063,732 Vol.

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Spain

$6,307,282 Vol.

16%

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France

$5,055,492 Vol.

13%

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England

$7,149,824 Vol.

13%

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Argentina

$7,231,781 Vol.

9%

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Brazil

$6,772,819 Vol.

9%

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Portugal

$8,348,738 Vol.

7%

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Germany

$6,969,717 Vol.

5%

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Netherlands

$9,318,134 Vol.

3%

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Norway

$7,542,727 Vol.

3%

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Belgium

$7,665,460 Vol.

2%

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Colombia

$7,148,654 Vol.

2%

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Japan

$9,045,387 Vol.

2%

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USA

$4,726,950 Vol.

2%

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Morocco

$8,994,476 Vol.

2%

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Uruguay

$7,571,549 Vol.

1%

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Switzerland

$8,616,173 Vol.

1%

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Croatia

$7,975,321 Vol.

1%

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Mexico

$6,773,823 Vol.

1%

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Ecuador

$8,908,721 Vol.

1%

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Senegal

$8,291,418 Vol.

1%

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Sweden

$296,024 Vol.

1%

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Canada

$11,857,465 Vol.

1%

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Austria

$10,341,706 Vol.

1%

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South Korea

$13,583,790 Vol.

<1%

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Paraguay

$11,760,146 Vol.

<1%

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Ivory Coast

$9,124,718 Vol.

<1%

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Egypt

$10,718,737 Vol.

<1%

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Ghana

$10,306,417 Vol.

<1%

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Algeria

$11,086,541 Vol.

<1%

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Scotland

$11,165,128 Vol.

<1%

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Tunisia

$11,279,178 Vol.

<1%

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Australia

$8,210,632 Vol.

<1%

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Saudi Arabia

$17,650,634 Vol.

<1%

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Haiti

$12,561,153 Vol.

<1%

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Jordan

$16,591,685 Vol.

<1%

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Iran

$11,549,404 Vol.

<1%

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Panama

$1,563,500 Vol.

<1%

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South Africa

$19,552,843 Vol.

<1%

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Cape Verde

$10,576,290 Vol.

<1%

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Qatar

$13,470,349 Vol.

<1%

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New Zealand

$16,888,152 Vol.

<1%

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Curaçao

$23,966,726 Vol.

<1%

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Uzbekistan

$27,625,980 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16.4% implied probability, driven by their dominant Nations League form and March internationals squad refresh with Lamine Yamal and Rodri returning from injury, bolstering an elite midfield alongside Pedri and Zubimendi. France (12.6%) and England (12.5%) trail closely after France's resilient 2-1 friendly win over Brazil—Mbappé scoring despite a late red card—and England's steady qualifier path, underscoring the tight race amid Europe's playoff upsets like Bosnia ousting Italy. Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive as defending champions and traditional powers, but recent stumbles highlight the expanded 48-team field's unpredictability, home advantages for hosts USA-Mexico-Canada, and depth across confederations keeping probabilities bunched.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$451,063,732
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16.4% implied probability, driven by their dominant Nations League form and March internationals squad refresh with Lamine Yamal and Rodri returning from injury, bolstering an elite midfield alongside Pedri and Zubimendi. France (12.6%) and England (12.5%) trail closely after France's resilient 2-1 friendly win over Brazil—Mbappé scoring despite a late red card—and England's steady qualifier path, underscoring the tight race amid Europe's playoff upsets like Bosnia ousting Italy. Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive as defending champions and traditional powers, but recent stumbles highlight the expanded 48-team field's unpredictability, home advantages for hosts USA-Mexico-Canada, and depth across confederations keeping probabilities bunched.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$451,063,732
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 45+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Spain" at 16%, followed by "France" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " has generated $451.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner ," browse the 45+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " is "Spain" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "France" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.