Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% for the US capturing another world leader in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—none since Saddam Hussein's 2003 detention during the Iraq invasion—and current US foreign policy prioritizing sanctions, drone strikes, and diplomacy over regime-change military actions. Recent rebel overthrow of Syria's Bashar al-Assad on December 8 saw no US capture involvement, with Assad fleeing to Russia, underscoring limited direct intervention. Ongoing tensions with Iran and support for Ukraine involve no leader-capture operations, while the incoming Trump administration signals targeted actions rather than invasions. Unforeseen escalations, like conflicts with North Korea or Venezuela, could shift odds, but structural barriers and historical precedents sustain the low-probability stance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% for the US capturing another world leader in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—none since Saddam Hussein's 2003 detention during the Iraq invasion—and current US foreign policy prioritizing sanctions, drone strikes, and diplomacy over regime-change military actions. Recent rebel overthrow of Syria's Bashar al-Assad on December 8 saw no US capture involvement, with Assad fleeing to Russia, underscoring limited direct intervention. Ongoing tensions with Iran and support for Ukraine involve no leader-capture operations, while the incoming Trump administration signals targeted actions rather than invasions. Unforeseen escalations, like conflicts with North Korea or Venezuela, could shift odds, but structural barriers and historical precedents sustain the low-probability stance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% for the US capturing another world leader in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—none since Saddam Hussein's 2003 detention during the Iraq invasion—and current US foreign policy prioritizing sanctions, drone strikes, and diplomacy over regime-change military actions. Recent rebel overthrow of Syria's Bashar al-Assad on December 8 saw no US capture involvement, with Assad fleeing to Russia, underscoring limited direct intervention. Ongoing tensions with Iran and support for Ukraine involve no leader-capture operations, while the incoming Trump administration signals targeted actions rather than invasions. Unforeseen escalations, like conflicts with North Korea or Venezuela, could shift odds, but structural barriers and historical precedents sustain the low-probability stance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$0结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% for the US capturing another world leader in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—none since Saddam Hussein's 2003 detention during the Iraq invasion—and current US foreign policy prioritizing sanctions, drone strikes, and diplomacy over regime-change military actions. Recent rebel overthrow of Syria's Bashar al-Assad on December 8 saw no US capture involvement, with Assad fleeing to Russia, underscoring limited direct intervention. Ongoing tensions with Iran and support for Ukraine involve no leader-capture operations, while the incoming Trump administration signals targeted actions rather than invasions. Unforeseen escalations, like conflicts with North Korea or Venezuela, could shift odds, but structural barriers and historical precedents sustain the low-probability stance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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