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政治·特朗普

共和党是否会使用“核选项”来打破阻挠？

Market icon
政治·特朗普

共和党是否会使用“核选项”来打破阻挠？

$551,219 交易量

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$551,219 交易量

Polymarket

2026年3月31日

$31,065 交易量

1%

2026年12月31日

$4,180 交易量

51%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Senate Republicans hold a narrow 53-47 majority but confront Democratic filibusters blocking priorities like the SAVE America Act, mandating proof of citizenship for federal voter registration and photo ID to vote. President Trump has intensified calls to invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority point of order overruling the chair to lower the 60-vote cloture threshold for legislation—urging exposure of opposing GOP senators. Majority Leader John Thune rejected rule changes on March 30 amid DHS funding disputes and refused to recall the Senate from recess, citing procedural inefficacy. Recent WSJ reporting on March 18 highlighted renewed GOP flirtations with full filibuster elimination, echoing 2025 shutdown pressures. Midterm elections and precedent risks temper leadership enthusiasm, with trader consensus hinging on imminent floor votes before March 31.

Senate Republicans hold a narrow 53-47 majority but confront Democratic filibusters blocking priorities like the SAVE America Act, mandating proof of citizenship for federal voter registration and photo ID to vote. President Trump has intensified calls to invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority point of order overruling the chair to lower the 60-vote cloture threshold for legislation—urging exposure of opposing GOP senators. Majority Leader John Thune rejected rule changes on March 30 amid DHS funding disputes and refused to recall the Senate from recess, citing procedural inefficacy. Recent WSJ reporting on March 18 highlighted renewed GOP flirtations with full filibuster elimination, echoing 2025 shutdown pressures. Midterm elections and precedent risks temper leadership enthusiasm, with trader consensus hinging on imminent floor votes before March 31.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Senate Republicans hold a narrow 53-47 majority but confront Democratic filibusters blocking priorities like the SAVE America Act, mandating proof of citizenship for federal voter registration and photo ID to vote. President Trump has intensified calls to invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority point of order overruling the chair to lower the 60-vote cloture threshold for legislation—urging exposure of opposing GOP senators. Majority Leader John Thune rejected rule changes on March 30 amid DHS funding disputes and refused to recall the Senate from recess, citing procedural inefficacy. Recent WSJ reporting on March 18 highlighted renewed GOP flirtations with full filibuster elimination, echoing 2025 shutdown pressures. Midterm elections and precedent risks temper leadership enthusiasm, with trader consensus hinging on imminent floor votes before March 31.

Senate Republicans hold a narrow 53-47 majority but confront Democratic filibusters blocking priorities like the SAVE America Act, mandating proof of citizenship for federal voter registration and photo ID to vote. President Trump has intensified calls to invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority point of order overruling the chair to lower the 60-vote cloture threshold for legislation—urging exposure of opposing GOP senators. Majority Leader John Thune rejected rule changes on March 30 amid DHS funding disputes and refused to recall the Senate from recess, citing procedural inefficacy. Recent WSJ reporting on March 18 highlighted renewed GOP flirtations with full filibuster elimination, echoing 2025 shutdown pressures. Midterm elections and precedent risks temper leadership enthusiasm, with trader consensus hinging on imminent floor votes before March 31.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"共和党是否会使用“核选项”来打破阻挠？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年12月31日"，概率为 51%，其次是"2026年3月31日"，概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 51¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 51%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"共和党是否会使用“核选项”来打破阻挠？"已产生 $551.2K 的总交易量（自Oct 1, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"共和党是否会使用“核选项”来打破阻挠？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"共和党是否会使用“核选项”来打破阻挠？"的当前领先者是"2026年12月31日"，概率为 51%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 51%。紧随其后的结果是"2026年3月31日"，概率为 1%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"共和党是否会使用“核选项”来打破阻挠？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。