Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 31.5% implied probability of being the next Trump Cabinet departure, closely trailed by DNI Tulsi Gabbard at 27%, amid escalating scandals and internal pressures. Chavez-DeRemer's top aides resigned on March 3 amid a misconduct probe, followed by her bodyguard quitting over affair claims, eroding her standing. Gabbard faces reports from the past week of Trump privately exploring her replacement over shielding a deputy amid Iran war policy tensions, though he rejected the claims. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sits third at 16.5% despite ousting Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George. This tight contest reflects competing risks in a high-turnover executive branch following recent ousters of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi; intensified investigations, public clashes, or war developments could widen the gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Lori Chavez-DeRemer 32%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Pete Hegseth 14%
Howard Lutnick 9%
$10,854 交易量
$10,854 交易量
2026-12-31
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
32%
Tulsi Gabbard
27%
Pete Hegseth
14%
Howard Lutnick
9%
Lee Zeldin
6%
Susie Wiles
4%
Mike Waltz
3%
Brooke Rollins
3%
None before 2027
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Chris Wright
<1%
Scott Turner
<1%
Linda McMahon
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 32%
Tulsi Gabbard 27%
Pete Hegseth 14%
Howard Lutnick 9%
$10,854 交易量
$10,854 交易量
2026-12-31
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$731 交易量
32%
Tulsi Gabbard
$623 交易量
27%
Pete Hegseth
$467 交易量
14%
Howard Lutnick
$394 交易量
9%
Lee Zeldin
$1,592 交易量
6%
Susie Wiles
$362 交易量
4%
Mike Waltz
$457 交易量
3%
Brooke Rollins
$385 交易量
3%
None before 2027
$363 交易量
2%
Jamieson Greer
$352 交易量
2%
Marco Rubio
$565 交易量
2%
J.D. Vance
$370 交易量
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$575 交易量
1%
John Ratcliffe
$384 交易量
1%
Russell T. Vought
$355 交易量
1%
Sean Duffy
$352 交易量
1%
Doug Burgum
$354 交易量
1%
Doug Collins
$420 交易量
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$352 交易量
<1%
Scott Bessent
$352 交易量
<1%
Chris Wright
$354 交易量
<1%
Scott Turner
$348 交易量
<1%
Linda McMahon
$348 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 31.5% implied probability of being the next Trump Cabinet departure, closely trailed by DNI Tulsi Gabbard at 27%, amid escalating scandals and internal pressures. Chavez-DeRemer's top aides resigned on March 3 amid a misconduct probe, followed by her bodyguard quitting over affair claims, eroding her standing. Gabbard faces reports from the past week of Trump privately exploring her replacement over shielding a deputy amid Iran war policy tensions, though he rejected the claims. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sits third at 16.5% despite ousting Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George. This tight contest reflects competing risks in a high-turnover executive branch following recent ousters of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi; intensified investigations, public clashes, or war developments could widen the gap.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
交易量
$10,854结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 31.5% implied probability of being the next Trump Cabinet departure, closely trailed by DNI Tulsi Gabbard at 27%, amid escalating scandals and internal pressures. Chavez-DeRemer's top aides resigned on March 3 amid a misconduct probe, followed by her bodyguard quitting over affair claims, eroding her standing. Gabbard faces reports from the past week of Trump privately exploring her replacement over shielding a deputy amid Iran war policy tensions, though he rejected the claims. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sits third at 16.5% despite ousting Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George. This tight contest reflects competing risks in a high-turnover executive branch following recent ousters of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi; intensified investigations, public clashes, or war developments could widen the gap.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$10,854结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 31.5% implied probability of being the next Trump Cabinet departure, closely trailed by DNI Tulsi Gabbard at 27%, amid escalating scandals and internal pressures. Chavez-DeRemer's top aides resigned on March 3 amid a misconduct probe, followed by her bodyguard quitting over affair claims, eroding her standing. Gabbard faces reports from the past week of Trump privately exploring her replacement over shielding a deputy amid Iran war policy tensions, though he rejected the claims. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sits third at 16.5% despite ousting Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George. This tight contest reflects competing risks in a high-turnover executive branch following recent ousters of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi; intensified investigations, public clashes, or war developments could widen the gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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