President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4—transmitted to the Senate—has driven trader consensus to a 95.7% implied probability of confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end, reflecting Warsh's experience from 2006–2011 and alignment with administration priorities on interest rates amid rising inflation pressures. Recent progress includes the Senate Banking Committee's plan for a confirmation hearing the week of April 13, advancing past Sen. Thom Tillis's hold tied to a DOJ probe of Powell. Challenges could arise from Banking Committee votes, full Senate floor opposition, procedural delays from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict, or unforeseen scandals eroding GOP support.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于凯文·沃什 95.4%
朱迪·谢尔顿 1.7%
米歇尔·鲍曼 1.0%
杰罗姆·鲍威尔 <1%
$15,530,918 交易量
$15,530,918 交易量
Oct 31, 2026
凯文·沃什
95%
朱迪·谢尔顿
2%
凯文·哈塞特
<1%
克里斯托弗·沃勒
<1%
杰罗姆·鲍威尔
1%
斯蒂芬·米兰
<1%
斯科特·贝森特
<1%
Rick Reider
1%
米歇尔·鲍曼
1%
凯文·沃什 95.4%
朱迪·谢尔顿 1.7%
米歇尔·鲍曼 1.0%
杰罗姆·鲍威尔 <1%
$15,530,918 交易量
$15,530,918 交易量
Oct 31, 2026
凯文·沃什
$2,579,281 交易量
95%
朱迪·谢尔顿
$6,718,389 交易量
2%
凯文·哈塞特
$557,527 交易量
<1%
克里斯托弗·沃勒
$482,348 交易量
<1%
杰罗姆·鲍威尔
$737,579 交易量
1%
斯蒂芬·米兰
$480,662 交易量
<1%
斯科特·贝森特
$1,505,302 交易量
<1%
Rick Reider
$533,530 交易量
1%
米歇尔·鲍曼
$1,936,299 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4—transmitted to the Senate—has driven trader consensus to a 95.7% implied probability of confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end, reflecting Warsh's experience from 2006–2011 and alignment with administration priorities on interest rates amid rising inflation pressures. Recent progress includes the Senate Banking Committee's plan for a confirmation hearing the week of April 13, advancing past Sen. Thom Tillis's hold tied to a DOJ probe of Powell. Challenges could arise from Banking Committee votes, full Senate floor opposition, procedural delays from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict, or unforeseen scandals eroding GOP support.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
交易量
$15,530,918结束日期
Oct 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4—transmitted to the Senate—has driven trader consensus to a 95.7% implied probability of confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end, reflecting Warsh's experience from 2006–2011 and alignment with administration priorities on interest rates amid rising inflation pressures. Recent progress includes the Senate Banking Committee's plan for a confirmation hearing the week of April 13, advancing past Sen. Thom Tillis's hold tied to a DOJ probe of Powell. Challenges could arise from Banking Committee votes, full Senate floor opposition, procedural delays from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict, or unforeseen scandals eroding GOP support.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$15,530,918结束日期
Oct 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on March 4—transmitted to the Senate—has driven trader consensus to a 95.7% implied probability of confirmation before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end, reflecting Warsh's experience from 2006–2011 and alignment with administration priorities on interest rates amid rising inflation pressures. Recent progress includes the Senate Banking Committee's plan for a confirmation hearing the week of April 13, advancing past Sen. Thom Tillis's hold tied to a DOJ probe of Powell. Challenges could arise from Banking Committee votes, full Senate floor opposition, procedural delays from geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict, or unforeseen scandals eroding GOP support.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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