Trader consensus on Polymarket highlights extreme fragmentation in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, with "Other" pairs at 40.5% reflecting polls showing no candidate above 17% amid a record 36 contenders, ensuring a June 7 runoff. Recent Ipsos (March 21-22) and Datum (March 25-27) surveys place Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori in a statistical tie at 11-17%, positioning their pairing at 17.5%, while Alfonso López-Chau (6-8%) and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (4-8%, strong centrally) explain subsequent odds like López Chau-Fujimori (13.5%) and López Aliaga-Sánchez (11%). The first round of presidential debates last week trimmed undecided voters from 20-30% but maintained the tight, multi-candidate top tier, amplifying uncertainty over the advancing duo.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Which candidates advance to 2026 Peru presidential runoff?
Which candidates advance to 2026 Peru presidential runoff?
Other 40.5%
López Aliaga & Fujimori 18%
López Chau & Fujimori 14%
López Aliaga & Sánchez Palomino 11%
$128,889 交易量
$128,889 交易量
2026-04-12
Other
41%
López Aliaga & Fujimori
18%
López Chau & Fujimori
14%
López Aliaga & Sánchez Palomino
11%
Fujimori & Nieto
4%
López Aliaga & Nieto
3%
López Chau & Sánchez Palomino
3%
López Aliaga & López Chau
2%
López Chau & Nieto
<1%
López Aliaga & Grozo
<1%
Other 40.5%
López Aliaga & Fujimori 18%
López Chau & Fujimori 14%
López Aliaga & Sánchez Palomino 11%
$128,889 交易量
$128,889 交易量
2026-04-12
Other
$2,908 交易量
41%
López Aliaga & Fujimori
$17,692 交易量
18%
López Chau & Fujimori
$37,338 交易量
14%
López Aliaga & Sánchez Palomino
$6,971 交易量
11%
Fujimori & Nieto
$58,752 交易量
4%
López Aliaga & Nieto
$980 交易量
3%
López Chau & Sánchez Palomino
$836 交易量
3%
López Aliaga & López Chau
$1,353 交易量
2%
López Chau & Nieto
$1,221 交易量
<1%
López Aliaga & Grozo
$838 交易量
<1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Trader consensus on Polymarket highlights extreme fragmentation in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, with "Other" pairs at 40.5% reflecting polls showing no candidate above 17% amid a record 36 contenders, ensuring a June 7 runoff. Recent Ipsos (March 21-22) and Datum (March 25-27) surveys place Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori in a statistical tie at 11-17%, positioning their pairing at 17.5%, while Alfonso López-Chau (6-8%) and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (4-8%, strong centrally) explain subsequent odds like López Chau-Fujimori (13.5%) and López Aliaga-Sánchez (11%). The first round of presidential debates last week trimmed undecided voters from 20-30% but maintained the tight, multi-candidate top tier, amplifying uncertainty over the advancing duo.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
交易量
$128,889结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).Trader consensus on Polymarket highlights extreme fragmentation in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, with "Other" pairs at 40.5% reflecting polls showing no candidate above 17% amid a record 36 contenders, ensuring a June 7 runoff. Recent Ipsos (March 21-22) and Datum (March 25-27) surveys place Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori in a statistical tie at 11-17%, positioning their pairing at 17.5%, while Alfonso López-Chau (6-8%) and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (4-8%, strong centrally) explain subsequent odds like López Chau-Fujimori (13.5%) and López Aliaga-Sánchez (11%). The first round of presidential debates last week trimmed undecided voters from 20-30% but maintained the tight, multi-candidate top tier, amplifying uncertainty over the advancing duo.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates who advance to the runoff of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed below advances to the runoff, if no runoff is being held, for example, because a candidate wins the first round outright, or if the candidates of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
交易量
$128,889结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket highlights extreme fragmentation in Peru's April 12 first-round presidential election, with "Other" pairs at 40.5% reflecting polls showing no candidate above 17% amid a record 36 contenders, ensuring a June 7 runoff. Recent Ipsos (March 21-22) and Datum (March 25-27) surveys place Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori in a statistical tie at 11-17%, positioning their pairing at 17.5%, while Alfonso López-Chau (6-8%) and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (4-8%, strong centrally) explain subsequent odds like López Chau-Fujimori (13.5%) and López Aliaga-Sánchez (11%). The first round of presidential debates last week trimmed undecided voters from 20-30% but maintained the tight, multi-candidate top tier, amplifying uncertainty over the advancing duo.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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