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选举·主要

西弗吉尼亚州共和党参议院初选获胜者

Market icon
选举·主要

西弗吉尼亚州共和党参议院初选获胜者

谢利·摩尔·卡皮托 96.0%

汤姆·威利斯 3.1%

亚历山大·加塞鲁德 1.3%

Polymarket

$11,816 交易量

谢利·摩尔·卡皮托 96.0%

汤姆·威利斯 3.1%

亚历山大·加塞鲁德 1.3%

Polymarket

$11,816 交易量

谢利·摩尔·卡皮托

$3,480 交易量

96%

汤姆·威利斯

$3,679 交易量

3%

亚历山大·加塞鲁德

$4,658 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia. If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96% implied probability to win West Virginia's Republican Senate primary on May 12, driven by her established fundraising dominance, recent endorsement from the West Virginia Chamber PAC, and incumbency advantage in a deeply red state where sitting senators rarely face credible primary threats. State Senator Tom Willis and challenger Alexander Gaaserud trail far behind, lacking the name recognition, resources, or institutional support to mount a serious bid despite Willis's conservative pitch targeting Capito's voting record. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Capito scandal, late-breaking endorsement for a challenger, or unusually high conservative primary turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents decisively.

Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96% implied probability to win West Virginia's Republican Senate primary on May 12, driven by her established fundraising dominance, recent endorsement from the West Virginia Chamber PAC, and incumbency advantage in a deeply red state where sitting senators rarely face credible primary threats. State Senator Tom Willis and challenger Alexander Gaaserud trail far behind, lacking the name recognition, resources, or institutional support to mount a serious bid despite Willis's conservative pitch targeting Capito's voting record. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Capito scandal, late-breaking endorsement for a challenger, or unusually high conservative primary turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents decisively.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia. If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96% implied probability to win West Virginia's Republican Senate primary on May 12, driven by her established fundraising dominance, recent endorsement from the West Virginia Chamber PAC, and incumbency advantage in a deeply red state where sitting senators rarely face credible primary threats. State Senator Tom Willis and challenger Alexander Gaaserud trail far behind, lacking the name recognition, resources, or institutional support to mount a serious bid despite Willis's conservative pitch targeting Capito's voting record. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Capito scandal, late-breaking endorsement for a challenger, or unusually high conservative primary turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents decisively.

Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96% implied probability to win West Virginia's Republican Senate primary on May 12, driven by her established fundraising dominance, recent endorsement from the West Virginia Chamber PAC, and incumbency advantage in a deeply red state where sitting senators rarely face credible primary threats. State Senator Tom Willis and challenger Alexander Gaaserud trail far behind, lacking the name recognition, resources, or institutional support to mount a serious bid despite Willis's conservative pitch targeting Capito's voting record. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Capito scandal, late-breaking endorsement for a challenger, or unusually high conservative primary turnout, though historical base rates favor incumbents decisively.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"西弗吉尼亚州共和党参议院初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 3 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"谢利·摩尔·卡皮托"，概率为 96%，其次是"汤姆·威利斯"，概率为 3%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 96¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 96%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"西弗吉尼亚州共和党参议院初选获胜者"已产生 $11.8K 的总交易量（自Dec 2, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"西弗吉尼亚州共和党参议院初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 3 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"西弗吉尼亚州共和党参议院初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"谢利·摩尔·卡皮托"，概率为 96%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 96%。紧随其后的结果是"汤姆·威利斯"，概率为 3%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"西弗吉尼亚州共和党参议院初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。