Trader sentiment on a US-Iran ceasefire reflects an impasse following Iran's rejection of a US 15-point peace plan delivered via Pakistani mediators last week, which demanded an end to hostilities in the Middle East war. Tehran countered with its own proposal seeking reparations and full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, while its foreign minister denied ongoing negotiations despite White House claims of productive indirect talks. Military strikes persist between US forces, Israel, and Iranian proxies, with President Trump extending a key deadline by five days amid oil price volatility. Upcoming diplomatic signals or escalation risks, including potential new attacks, could sway probabilities, underscoring the uncertainty in backchannel diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$56,629,654 交易量
3月31日
2%
4月7日
12%
4月15日
22%
4月30日
40%
5月31日
54%
6月30日
63%
12月31日
76%
$56,629,654 交易量
3月31日
$35,752,889 交易量
2%
4月7日
$903,508 交易量
12%
4月15日
$5,489,055 交易量
22%
4月30日
$6,161,886 交易量
40%
5月31日
$2,165,986 交易量
54%
6月30日
$2,239,846 交易量
63%
12月31日
$460,926 交易量
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader sentiment on a US-Iran ceasefire reflects an impasse following Iran's rejection of a US 15-point peace plan delivered via Pakistani mediators last week, which demanded an end to hostilities in the Middle East war. Tehran countered with its own proposal seeking reparations and full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, while its foreign minister denied ongoing negotiations despite White House claims of productive indirect talks. Military strikes persist between US forces, Israel, and Iranian proxies, with President Trump extending a key deadline by five days amid oil price volatility. Upcoming diplomatic signals or escalation risks, including potential new attacks, could sway probabilities, underscoring the uncertainty in backchannel diplomacy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
交易量
$56,629,654市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader sentiment on a US-Iran ceasefire reflects an impasse following Iran's rejection of a US 15-point peace plan delivered via Pakistani mediators last week, which demanded an end to hostilities in the Middle East war. Tehran countered with its own proposal seeking reparations and full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, while its foreign minister denied ongoing negotiations despite White House claims of productive indirect talks. Military strikes persist between US forces, Israel, and Iranian proxies, with President Trump extending a key deadline by five days amid oil price volatility. Upcoming diplomatic signals or escalation risks, including potential new attacks, could sway probabilities, underscoring the uncertainty in backchannel diplomacy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$56,629,654市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on a US-Iran ceasefire reflects an impasse following Iran's rejection of a US 15-point peace plan delivered via Pakistani mediators last week, which demanded an end to hostilities in the Middle East war. Tehran countered with its own proposal seeking reparations and full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, while its foreign minister denied ongoing negotiations despite White House claims of productive indirect talks. Military strikes persist between US forces, Israel, and Iranian proxies, with President Trump extending a key deadline by five days amid oil price volatility. Upcoming diplomatic signals or escalation risks, including potential new attacks, could sway probabilities, underscoring the uncertainty in backchannel diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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