US-Iran indirect ceasefire negotiations via mediators like Oman and Pakistan have faltered after Tehran rejected Washington's 15-point proposal on March 25 as "maximalist," countering with demands for an end to strikes, reparations, and Israeli withdrawal from contested areas. President Trump extended a unilateral pause on US attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days on March 26 to enable talks, while Israel escalated airstrikes on Tehran's industrial and nuclear sites, warning of further expansion to degrade capabilities before any truce. US Secretary of State stated on March 28 the war could conclude in weeks amid ongoing exchanges, highlighting diplomatic pressures, military momentum, and Gulf states' cautious reactions as pivotal for trader assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$56,914,918 交易量
Apr 15, 2026
3月31日
2%
4月7日
11%
4月15日
22%
4月30日
39%
5月31日
55%
6月30日
63%
12月31日
76%
$56,914,918 交易量
3月31日
$35,957,059 交易量
2%
4月7日
$909,108 交易量
11%
4月15日
$5,513,794 交易量
22%
4月30日
$6,172,059 交易量
39%
5月31日
$2,166,739 交易量
55%
6月30日
$2,239,896 交易量
63%
12月31日
$462,591 交易量
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran indirect ceasefire negotiations via mediators like Oman and Pakistan have faltered after Tehran rejected Washington's 15-point proposal on March 25 as "maximalist," countering with demands for an end to strikes, reparations, and Israeli withdrawal from contested areas. President Trump extended a unilateral pause on US attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days on March 26 to enable talks, while Israel escalated airstrikes on Tehran's industrial and nuclear sites, warning of further expansion to degrade capabilities before any truce. US Secretary of State stated on March 28 the war could conclude in weeks amid ongoing exchanges, highlighting diplomatic pressures, military momentum, and Gulf states' cautious reactions as pivotal for trader assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
交易量
$56,914,918市场开放时间
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran indirect ceasefire negotiations via mediators like Oman and Pakistan have faltered after Tehran rejected Washington's 15-point proposal on March 25 as "maximalist," countering with demands for an end to strikes, reparations, and Israeli withdrawal from contested areas. President Trump extended a unilateral pause on US attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days on March 26 to enable talks, while Israel escalated airstrikes on Tehran's industrial and nuclear sites, warning of further expansion to degrade capabilities before any truce. US Secretary of State stated on March 28 the war could conclude in weeks amid ongoing exchanges, highlighting diplomatic pressures, military momentum, and Gulf states' cautious reactions as pivotal for trader assessments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$56,914,918市场开放时间
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran indirect ceasefire negotiations via mediators like Oman and Pakistan have faltered after Tehran rejected Washington's 15-point proposal on March 25 as "maximalist," countering with demands for an end to strikes, reparations, and Israeli withdrawal from contested areas. President Trump extended a unilateral pause on US attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days on March 26 to enable talks, while Israel escalated airstrikes on Tehran's industrial and nuclear sites, warning of further expansion to degrade capabilities before any truce. US Secretary of State stated on March 28 the war could conclude in weeks amid ongoing exchanges, highlighting diplomatic pressures, military momentum, and Gulf states' cautious reactions as pivotal for trader assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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