Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 2026 US trade deficit most likely in the $800-900 billion range at 30.5%, with $900 billion to $1 trillion close behind at 23%, reflecting tight uncertainty over policy shifts and economic momentum. Recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows the 2024 goods and services deficit surging to a record pace above $1 trillion annually, driven by strong US consumer demand and investment outpacing exports amid a firm dollar. Incoming Trump administration tariff proposals—potentially 10-60% on imports—split traders, as they could curb inflows but risk retaliation and slower growth. Key separators include Q1 2025 trade figures, tariff legislation progress, and GDP revisions, with CBO baselines implying stability around 4% of GDP.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于8,000亿–9,000亿 31%
1.1万亿美元以上 24%
9000亿–1万亿 23%
1万亿–1.1万亿 14%
少于5000亿
9%
5000亿–6000亿
8%
6000亿–7000亿美元
5%
7000亿–8000亿
13%
8,000亿–9,000亿
31%
9000亿–1万亿
23%
1万亿–1.1万亿
14%
1.1万亿美元以上
16%
8,000亿–9,000亿 31%
1.1万亿美元以上 24%
9000亿–1万亿 23%
1万亿–1.1万亿 14%
少于5000亿
9%
5000亿–6000亿
8%
6000亿–7000亿美元
5%
7000亿–8000亿
13%
8,000亿–9,000亿
31%
9000亿–1万亿
23%
1万亿–1.1万亿
14%
1.1万亿美元以上
16%
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
市场开放时间: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 2026 US trade deficit most likely in the $800-900 billion range at 30.5%, with $900 billion to $1 trillion close behind at 23%, reflecting tight uncertainty over policy shifts and economic momentum. Recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows the 2024 goods and services deficit surging to a record pace above $1 trillion annually, driven by strong US consumer demand and investment outpacing exports amid a firm dollar. Incoming Trump administration tariff proposals—potentially 10-60% on imports—split traders, as they could curb inflows but risk retaliation and slower growth. Key separators include Q1 2025 trade figures, tariff legislation progress, and GDP revisions, with CBO baselines implying stability around 4% of GDP.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题