Market icon

美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?

Market icon

美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?

2026年3月前(美东时间) 100.0%

3月1日 <1%

3月2日 <1%

3月3日 <1%

Polymarket

$19,084,082 交易量

2026年3月前(美东时间) 100.0%

3月1日 <1%

3月2日 <1%

3月3日 <1%

Polymarket

$19,084,082 交易量

2026年3月前(美东时间)

$775,328 交易量

3月1日

$3,313,911 交易量

3月2日

$1,842,438 交易量

3月3日

$1,011,021 交易量

3月4日

$789,233 交易量

3月5日

$646,979 交易量

3月6日

$673,324 交易量

3月7日

$561,395 交易量

3月8日

$562,546 交易量

3月9日

$515,450 交易量

3月10日

$418,467 交易量

3月11日

$377,029 交易量

3月12日

$410,437 交易量

3月13日

$373,247 交易量

3月14日

$308,735 交易量

3月15日

$412,715 交易量

3月16日

$342,800 交易量

3月17日

$309,066 交易量

3月18日

$329,328 交易量

3月19日

$360,907 交易量

3月20日

$396,814 交易量

3月21日

$315,067 交易量

3月22日

$361,261 交易量

3月23日

$343,755 交易量

3月24日

$313,689 交易量

3月25日

$302,780 交易量

3月26日

$314,445 交易量

3月27日

$249,783 交易量

3月28日

$260,936 交易量

3月29日

$337,810 交易量

3月30日

$412,510 交易量

3月31日

$796,198 交易量

截至3月31日不进行打击

$344,680 交易量

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by March 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$19,084,082
结束日期
Mar 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Feb 9, 2026, 11:52 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by March 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提议结果: 是

无争议

最终结果: 是

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 33 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年3月前(美东时间)" at 100%, followed by "3月1日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" has generated $19.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?," browse the 33 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" is "2026年3月前(美东时间)" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3月1日" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.