Market icon

美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?

截至3月31日不进行打击 39%

2026年3月前(美东时间) 18%

3月1日 3.6%

3月6日 3.4%

Polymarket

$6,436,598 交易量

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by March 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,436,598
结束日期
Mar 31, 2026
创建时间
Feb 9, 2026, 11:52 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by March 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 33 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "截至3月31日不进行打击" at 39%, followed by "2026年3月前(美东时间)" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" has generated $6.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?," browse the 33 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" is "截至3月31日不进行打击" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2026年3月前(美东时间)" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?

截至3月31日不进行打击 39%

2026年3月前(美东时间) 18%

3月1日 3.6%

3月6日 3.4%

Polymarket

$6,436,598 交易量

2026年3月前(美东时间)

$231,715 交易量

18%

3月1日

$297,330 交易量

4%

3月2日

$263,037 交易量

3%

3月3日

$251,600 交易量

2%

3月4日

$256,512 交易量

2%

3月5日

$240,340 交易量

2%

3月6日

$196,377 交易量

3%

3月7日

$194,952 交易量

3%

3月8日

$215,052 交易量

2%

3月9日

$204,805 交易量

1%

3月10日

$214,102 交易量

1%

3月11日

$187,285 交易量

1%

3月12日

$211,207 交易量

1%

3月13日

$150,952 交易量

2%

3月14日

$162,610 交易量

2%

3月15日

$189,529 交易量

1%

3月16日

$178,724 交易量

1%

3月17日

$167,001 交易量

1%

3月18日

$165,220 交易量

1%

3月19日

$178,720 交易量

1%

3月20日

$163,195 交易量

2%

3月21日

$148,837 交易量

2%

3月22日

$197,500 交易量

1%

3月23日

$167,081 交易量

1%

3月24日

$193,725 交易量

1%

3月25日

$172,570 交易量

1%

3月26日

$186,901 交易量

1%

3月27日

$122,734 交易量

1%

3月28日

$131,080 交易量

1%

3月29日

$175,421 交易量

1%

3月30日

$187,342 交易量

1%

3月31日

$247,265 交易量

1%

截至3月31日不进行打击

$185,877 交易量

39%

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 33 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "截至3月31日不进行打击" at 39%, followed by "2026年3月前(美东时间)" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" has generated $6.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?," browse the 33 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" is "截至3月31日不进行打击" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2026年3月前(美东时间)" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美国下次打击伊朗的时间是…… ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.