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政治·特朗普

2027年之前的美国国会股票交易禁令？

Market icon
政治·特朗普

2027年之前的美国国会股票交易禁令？

Dec 31

Dec 31

是

29% chance
Polymarket

$16,156 交易量

是

29% chance
Polymarket

$16,156 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Despite strong bipartisan momentum—including the House's April passage of the ETHICS Act (219-186) and a July Senate cloture vote of 88-11 advancing a stock trading ban in the NDAA—negotiators dropped the provision from the final defense bill signed in December, stalling progress amid end-of-session gridlock. Recent member trade disclosures and public polling showing 70%+ support have intensified calls for action, with both presidential nominees endorsing a ban, yet traders price "No" at 71% reflecting doubts over Senate filibuster hurdles (needing 60 votes), lame-duck session uncertainties post-November 5 elections, and competing priorities like appropriations and debt ceiling in the incoming 119th Congress convening January 2025. Historical failures despite repeated introductions underscore institutional resistance.

Despite strong bipartisan momentum—including the House's April passage of the ETHICS Act (219-186) and a July Senate cloture vote of 88-11 advancing a stock trading ban in the NDAA—negotiators dropped the provision from the final defense bill signed in December, stalling progress amid end-of-session gridlock. Recent member trade disclosures and public polling showing 70%+ support have intensified calls for action, with both presidential nominees endorsing a ban, yet traders price "No" at 71% reflecting doubts over Senate filibuster hurdles (needing 60 votes), lame-duck session uncertainties post-November 5 elections, and competing priorities like appropriations and debt ceiling in the incoming 119th Congress convening January 2025. Historical failures despite repeated introductions underscore institutional resistance.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Despite strong bipartisan momentum—including the House's April passage of the ETHICS Act (219-186) and a July Senate cloture vote of 88-11 advancing a stock trading ban in the NDAA—negotiators dropped the provision from the final defense bill signed in December, stalling progress amid end-of-session gridlock. Recent member trade disclosures and public polling showing 70%+ support have intensified calls for action, with both presidential nominees endorsing a ban, yet traders price "No" at 71% reflecting doubts over Senate filibuster hurdles (needing 60 votes), lame-duck session uncertainties post-November 5 elections, and competing priorities like appropriations and debt ceiling in the incoming 119th Congress convening January 2025. Historical failures despite repeated introductions underscore institutional resistance.

Despite strong bipartisan momentum—including the House's April passage of the ETHICS Act (219-186) and a July Senate cloture vote of 88-11 advancing a stock trading ban in the NDAA—negotiators dropped the provision from the final defense bill signed in December, stalling progress amid end-of-session gridlock. Recent member trade disclosures and public polling showing 70%+ support have intensified calls for action, with both presidential nominees endorsing a ban, yet traders price "No" at 71% reflecting doubts over Senate filibuster hurdles (needing 60 votes), lame-duck session uncertainties post-November 5 elections, and competing priorities like appropriations and debt ceiling in the incoming 119th Congress convening January 2025. Historical failures despite repeated introductions underscore institutional resistance.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2027年之前的美国国会股票交易禁令？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"美国国会在2027年前禁止股票交易？"，概率为 29%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 29¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 29%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2027年之前的美国国会股票交易禁令？"已产生 $16.2K 的总交易量（自Nov 5, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2027年之前的美国国会股票交易禁令？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2027年之前的美国国会股票交易禁令？"的当前领先者是"美国国会在2027年前禁止股票交易？"，概率为 29%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 29%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2027年之前的美国国会股票交易禁令？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。