Ongoing military escalations and entrenched negotiating positions have solidified trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, with "No" implying 90.5% probability. In the past week, Russia launched its largest drone barrage yet on Ukraine, met with robust Ukrainian air defenses downing most, while Ukraine conducted strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet assets and advanced in Kursk—signaling no de-escalation. Zelenskyy reiterated demands for full Russian troop withdrawal and security guarantees, clashing with Putin's insistence on recognizing annexed territories and Ukraine's neutrality. Absent scheduled talks or breakthroughs, and with U.S. election outcomes potentially influencing aid flows post-January, traders price in prolonged stalemate barring unforeseen diplomatic shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$64,571 交易量
$64,571 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$64,571 交易量
$64,571 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military escalations and entrenched negotiating positions have solidified trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, with "No" implying 90.5% probability. In the past week, Russia launched its largest drone barrage yet on Ukraine, met with robust Ukrainian air defenses downing most, while Ukraine conducted strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet assets and advanced in Kursk—signaling no de-escalation. Zelenskyy reiterated demands for full Russian troop withdrawal and security guarantees, clashing with Putin's insistence on recognizing annexed territories and Ukraine's neutrality. Absent scheduled talks or breakthroughs, and with U.S. election outcomes potentially influencing aid flows post-January, traders price in prolonged stalemate barring unforeseen diplomatic shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
交易量
$64,571结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military escalations and entrenched negotiating positions have solidified trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, with "No" implying 90.5% probability. In the past week, Russia launched its largest drone barrage yet on Ukraine, met with robust Ukrainian air defenses downing most, while Ukraine conducted strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet assets and advanced in Kursk—signaling no de-escalation. Zelenskyy reiterated demands for full Russian troop withdrawal and security guarantees, clashing with Putin's insistence on recognizing annexed territories and Ukraine's neutrality. Absent scheduled talks or breakthroughs, and with U.S. election outcomes potentially influencing aid flows post-January, traders price in prolonged stalemate barring unforeseen diplomatic shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$64,571结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military escalations and entrenched negotiating positions have solidified trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, with "No" implying 90.5% probability. In the past week, Russia launched its largest drone barrage yet on Ukraine, met with robust Ukrainian air defenses downing most, while Ukraine conducted strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet assets and advanced in Kursk—signaling no de-escalation. Zelenskyy reiterated demands for full Russian troop withdrawal and security guarantees, clashing with Putin's insistence on recognizing annexed territories and Ukraine's neutrality. Absent scheduled talks or breakthroughs, and with U.S. election outcomes potentially influencing aid flows post-January, traders price in prolonged stalemate barring unforeseen diplomatic shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题