Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 67% implied probability to UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% in Q1 2026, driven by January's flat monthly GDP outturn (0.0% month-on-month) and softening March flash PMIs—composite at 51.0, services at 51.2—signaling stalled activity amid Middle East conflict risks elevating energy costs and inflation pressures. This positions the low-growth bin ahead of negative growth (15%) amid recession fears, while higher ranges like 0.9-1.2% (17%) reflect optimism from prior quarters' modest expansions. OBR's March forecast downgraded full-year 2026 growth to 1.1% on cyclical weakness, with Bank of England holding rates at 3.75%. Key catalyst: ONS February monthly GDP due April 16, potentially clarifying Q1 trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0.0-0.3% 67%
0.9-1.2% 16.7%
0.3-0.6% 6.7%
负数 4.8%
$20,689 交易量
$20,689 交易量
2026-05-14
负数
15%
0.0-0.3%
67%
0.3-0.6%
7%
0.6-0.9%
14%
0.9-1.2%
17%
1.2-1.5%
1%
1.5-1.8%
<1%
1.8%以上
<1%
0.0-0.3% 67%
0.9-1.2% 16.7%
0.3-0.6% 6.7%
负数 4.8%
$20,689 交易量
$20,689 交易量
2026-05-14
负数
$1,755 交易量
15%
0.0-0.3%
$8,994 交易量
67%
0.3-0.6%
$697 交易量
7%
0.6-0.9%
$6,833 交易量
14%
0.9-1.2%
$527 交易量
17%
1.2-1.5%
$568 交易量
1%
1.5-1.8%
$471 交易量
<1%
1.8%以上
$844 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 67% implied probability to UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% in Q1 2026, driven by January's flat monthly GDP outturn (0.0% month-on-month) and softening March flash PMIs—composite at 51.0, services at 51.2—signaling stalled activity amid Middle East conflict risks elevating energy costs and inflation pressures. This positions the low-growth bin ahead of negative growth (15%) amid recession fears, while higher ranges like 0.9-1.2% (17%) reflect optimism from prior quarters' modest expansions. OBR's March forecast downgraded full-year 2026 growth to 1.1% on cyclical weakness, with Bank of England holding rates at 3.75%. Key catalyst: ONS February monthly GDP due April 16, potentially clarifying Q1 trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$20,689结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 67% implied probability to UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% in Q1 2026, driven by January's flat monthly GDP outturn (0.0% month-on-month) and softening March flash PMIs—composite at 51.0, services at 51.2—signaling stalled activity amid Middle East conflict risks elevating energy costs and inflation pressures. This positions the low-growth bin ahead of negative growth (15%) amid recession fears, while higher ranges like 0.9-1.2% (17%) reflect optimism from prior quarters' modest expansions. OBR's March forecast downgraded full-year 2026 growth to 1.1% on cyclical weakness, with Bank of England holding rates at 3.75%. Key catalyst: ONS February monthly GDP due April 16, potentially clarifying Q1 trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$20,689结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 67% implied probability to UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% in Q1 2026, driven by January's flat monthly GDP outturn (0.0% month-on-month) and softening March flash PMIs—composite at 51.0, services at 51.2—signaling stalled activity amid Middle East conflict risks elevating energy costs and inflation pressures. This positions the low-growth bin ahead of negative growth (15%) amid recession fears, while higher ranges like 0.9-1.2% (17%) reflect optimism from prior quarters' modest expansions. OBR's March forecast downgraded full-year 2026 growth to 1.1% on cyclical weakness, with Bank of England holding rates at 3.75%. Key catalyst: ONS February monthly GDP due April 16, potentially clarifying Q1 trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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