Ongoing military escalation in the Iran war, initiated late February 2026 with attacks on commercial vessels, has reduced Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic to about 5% of pre-crisis levels, averaging just seven ships daily amid persistent threats from Iranian forces including the IRGC. Recent maritime intelligence on April 2 shows a slight uptick in transits but widespread avoidance of IRGC-controlled corridors by Omani vessels, while Iran announced hours ago a draft protocol with Oman to monitor and oversee traffic—signaling intent for controlled passage even post-hostilities rather than unrestricted normalization. With no ceasefire signals from U.S. or Iranian officials and analysts forecasting months of disruption, traders price only a 30.5% chance of returning to normal volumes by May 31 per IMF Portwatch metrics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$93,659 交易量
$93,659 交易量
2026-05-31
$93,659 交易量
$93,659 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military escalation in the Iran war, initiated late February 2026 with attacks on commercial vessels, has reduced Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic to about 5% of pre-crisis levels, averaging just seven ships daily amid persistent threats from Iranian forces including the IRGC. Recent maritime intelligence on April 2 shows a slight uptick in transits but widespread avoidance of IRGC-controlled corridors by Omani vessels, while Iran announced hours ago a draft protocol with Oman to monitor and oversee traffic—signaling intent for controlled passage even post-hostilities rather than unrestricted normalization. With no ceasefire signals from U.S. or Iranian officials and analysts forecasting months of disruption, traders price only a 30.5% chance of returning to normal volumes by May 31 per IMF Portwatch metrics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
交易量
$93,659结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military escalation in the Iran war, initiated late February 2026 with attacks on commercial vessels, has reduced Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic to about 5% of pre-crisis levels, averaging just seven ships daily amid persistent threats from Iranian forces including the IRGC. Recent maritime intelligence on April 2 shows a slight uptick in transits but widespread avoidance of IRGC-controlled corridors by Omani vessels, while Iran announced hours ago a draft protocol with Oman to monitor and oversee traffic—signaling intent for controlled passage even post-hostilities rather than unrestricted normalization. With no ceasefire signals from U.S. or Iranian officials and analysts forecasting months of disruption, traders price only a 30.5% chance of returning to normal volumes by May 31 per IMF Portwatch metrics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$93,664结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military escalation in the Iran war, initiated late February 2026 with attacks on commercial vessels, has reduced Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic to about 5% of pre-crisis levels, averaging just seven ships daily amid persistent threats from Iranian forces including the IRGC. Recent maritime intelligence on April 2 shows a slight uptick in transits but widespread avoidance of IRGC-controlled corridors by Omani vessels, while Iran announced hours ago a draft protocol with Oman to monitor and oversee traffic—signaling intent for controlled passage even post-hostilities rather than unrestricted normalization. With no ceasefire signals from U.S. or Iranian officials and analysts forecasting months of disruption, traders price only a 30.5% chance of returning to normal volumes by May 31 per IMF Portwatch metrics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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