Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.8% implied probability, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, as escalating U.S. military involvement in Iran under President Trump—highlighted by recent airstrikes and erratic statements—has eroded Vance's frontrunner status over the past week, raising doubts about GOP electability amid foreign policy risks. Democrats have sharpened attacks on Vance, positioning him as their primary 2028 target, while Newsom gains traction from dominant California Democratic primary polling and teases a bid contingent on midterm House flips. Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% buoyed by his Secretary of State role. With 2026 midterms looming, incumbency advantages, polling trends, and party primaries will likely create separation in this fluid, early-stage race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于JD Vance 17.8%
加文·纽瑟姆 17.3%
马尔科·鲁比奥 10.3%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 5.5%
$465,032,028 交易量
$465,032,028 交易量
JD Vance
18%
加文·纽瑟姆
17%
马尔科·鲁比奥
10%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
6%
乔恩·奥索夫
3%
卡马拉·哈里斯
3%
分组项标题：塔克·卡尔森
3%
乔什·沙皮罗
2%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
彼得·布蒂吉格
2%
分组项标题：JB Pritzker
2%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%
道恩·“巨石”强森
1%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%
安迪·贝塞尔
1%
分组项目标题：伊万卡·特朗普
1%
分组项标题：杰米·戴蒙
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
埃隆·马斯克
1%
分组项标题：格雷琴·惠特默
1%
格雷格·阿博特
1%
分组项标题：韦斯·摩尔
1%
唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%
尼基·黑利
1%
罗·卡纳
1%
托马斯·马西
1%
图尔西·加巴德
1%
分组条目标题：蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
格伦·杨金
1%
斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
分组项标题：Zohran Mamdani
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
皮特·海格塞斯
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
<1%
JD Vance 17.8%
加文·纽瑟姆 17.3%
马尔科·鲁比奥 10.3%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 5.5%
$465,032,028 交易量
$465,032,028 交易量
JD Vance
18%
加文·纽瑟姆
17%
马尔科·鲁比奥
10%
亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯
6%
乔恩·奥索夫
3%
卡马拉·哈里斯
3%
分组项标题：塔克·卡尔森
3%
乔什·沙皮罗
2%
唐纳德·特朗普
2%
彼得·布蒂吉格
2%
分组项标题：JB Pritzker
2%
罗恩·德桑蒂斯
2%
道恩·“巨石”强森
1%
詹姆斯·塔拉里科
1%
安迪·贝塞尔
1%
分组项目标题：伊万卡·特朗普
1%
分组项标题：杰米·戴蒙
1%
米歇尔·奥巴马
1%
埃隆·马斯克
1%
分组项标题：格雷琴·惠特默
1%
格雷格·阿博特
1%
分组项标题：韦斯·摩尔
1%
唐纳德·特朗普二世
1%
尼基·黑利
1%
罗·卡纳
1%
托马斯·马西
1%
图尔西·加巴德
1%
分组条目标题：蒂姆·沃尔茨
1%
格伦·杨金
1%
斯蒂芬·史密斯
1%
维克·拉马斯瓦米
1%
分组项标题：Zohran Mamdani
1%
埃里克·特朗普
1%
金·卡戴珊
1%
皮特·海格塞斯
1%
勒布朗·詹姆斯
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
市场开放时间： Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.8% implied probability, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.3%, as escalating U.S. military involvement in Iran under President Trump—highlighted by recent airstrikes and erratic statements—has eroded Vance's frontrunner status over the past week, raising doubts about GOP electability amid foreign policy risks. Democrats have sharpened attacks on Vance, positioning him as their primary 2028 target, while Newsom gains traction from dominant California Democratic primary polling and teases a bid contingent on midterm House flips. Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% buoyed by his Secretary of State role. With 2026 midterms looming, incumbency advantages, polling trends, and party primaries will likely create separation in this fluid, early-stage race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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