Trader consensus prices Emmanuel Grégoire's runoff victory by under 5% margin as most likely at 62.5%, with 5-10% next at 22%, reflecting polls showing his narrow edge over Rachida Dati. Recent IFOP and Elabe surveys from late 2024 indicate Grégoire leading 51-53% to Dati's 47-49% in head-to-head matchups, bolstered by Paris's progressive voter base and his role as incumbent deputy mayor succeeding Anne Hidalgo. Dati's 14.5% win probability stems from right-wing unity potential and her high-profile justice minister role amid national conservative gains. Key catalysts include Grégoire's strong first-round polling at 25-28% and upcoming campaign momentum before March 2026 voting, underscoring the tight Paris mayoral race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 <5% 63%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 5-10% 22%
拉希达·达蒂获胜 15%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 10–15% 2.3%
$128,920 交易量
$128,920 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 20%+
<1%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 15–20%
1%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 10–15%
2%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 5-10%
22%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 <5%
63%
拉希达·达蒂获胜
15%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 <5% 63%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 5-10% 22%
拉希达·达蒂获胜 15%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 10–15% 2.3%
$128,920 交易量
$128,920 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 20%+
$14,285 交易量
<1%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 15–20%
$12,740 交易量
1%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 10–15%
$16,150 交易量
2%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 5-10%
$27,087 交易量
22%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷瓜尔 <5%
$32,284 交易量
63%
拉希达·达蒂获胜
$26,374 交易量
15%
The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市场开放时间： Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
交易量
$128,920结束日期
Mar 22, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. Paris uses a two-round proportional list system with a majority bonus. Voters cast two ballots: one for a citywide list that determines the composition of the Council of Paris, and one for a list in their arrondissement that determines the arrondissement councils. The members of the Council of Paris subsequently elect the Mayor of Paris. This market is based solely on the list vote totals for the entire city of Paris, with lists identified by their lead candidate.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two lists based on the total number of votes received in the citywide list vote in the second round of this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid citywide list votes received by the list that wins the most citywide list votes and the list that wins the second-most citywide list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each list will be determined by dividing the total number of valid citywide list votes each of the top two lists receives by the sum of all valid citywide list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on citywide list votes cast in the second round of this election. Votes cast for arrondissement lists will not be considered.
If two or more lists tie for the most valid citywide list votes in this election, and the tie is between the two listed lists, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed lead candidate's name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed list and an unlisted list, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed list. If the tie is between two or more unlisted lists, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted list wins the most citywide list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
交易量
$128,920结束日期
Mar 22, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 16, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices Emmanuel Grégoire's runoff victory by under 5% margin as most likely at 62.5%, with 5-10% next at 22%, reflecting polls showing his narrow edge over Rachida Dati. Recent IFOP and Elabe surveys from late 2024 indicate Grégoire leading 51-53% to Dati's 47-49% in head-to-head matchups, bolstered by Paris's progressive voter base and his role as incumbent deputy mayor succeeding Anne Hidalgo. Dati's 14.5% win probability stems from right-wing unity potential and her high-profile justice minister role amid national conservative gains. Key catalysts include Grégoire's strong first-round polling at 25-28% and upcoming campaign momentum before March 2026 voting, underscoring the tight Paris mayoral race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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