Trader consensus favors Stefany Shaheen at 61% implied probability to win New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her consistent polling lead—most recently 33% in the January 2026 University of New Hampshire survey among likely voters, ahead of Maura Sullivan's 8%, Heath Howard's 10%, and Carleigh Beriont's 3%, with 39% undecided. Shaheen benefits from strong name recognition as daughter of retiring U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, bolstering her frontrunner status in a fragmented field. Sullivan trails at 26.5% on markets despite weaker polls, reflecting her superior fundraising totals through late 2025. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, leaving high undecideds as a key risk factor ahead of summer campaigning.