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政治·法国

市政选举后的下一任图卢兹市长？

Market icon
政治·法国

市政选举后的下一任图卢兹市长？

让-吕克·穆登克 100.0%

拉姆贝尔·梅伊阿克 <1%

马莱娜·阿德拉达 <1%

朱利安·梅内德斯 <1%

Polymarket

$304,548 交易量

让-吕克·穆登克 100.0%

拉姆贝尔·梅伊阿克 <1%

马莱娜·阿德拉达 <1%

朱利安·梅内德斯 <1%

Polymarket

$304,548 交易量

拉姆贝尔·梅伊阿克

$0 交易量

否

马莱娜·阿德拉达

$0 交易量

否

朱利安·梅内德斯

$0 交易量

否

让-吕克·穆登克

$253,620 交易量

是

弗朗索瓦·布里昂松

$0 交易量

否

弗朗索瓦·皮克马尔

$50,928 交易量

否

朱利安·莱奥纳德利

$0 交易量

否

瓦内萨·佩迪诺蒂

$0 交易量

否

吉约姆·斯卡利

$0 交易量

否

阿瑟·科特雷尔

$0 交易量

否

The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count. If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jean-Luc Moudenc's 100% implied probability as next Toulouse mayor after the 2026 municipal election reflects trader consensus on his formidable incumbency advantage, having secured 48% in the 2020 first round amid stable local governance on urban development and economic growth. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Moudenc yet to formally declare but widely expected to run again under Les Républicains, facing fragmented opposition from figures like National Rally's Lambert Meilhac and socialists François Briançon. This commanding position aligns with historical patterns where French city mayors often win re-election handily. Potential challenges include a unified left-right coalition, personal scandal, or national political wave favoring extremes ahead of the March 2026 two-round vote.

Jean-Luc Moudenc's 100% implied probability as next Toulouse mayor after the 2026 municipal election reflects trader consensus on his formidable incumbency advantage, having secured 48% in the 2020 first round amid stable local governance on urban development and economic growth. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Moudenc yet to formally declare but widely expected to run again under Les Républicains, facing fragmented opposition from figures like National Rally's Lambert Meilhac and socialists François Briançon. This commanding position aligns with historical patterns where French city mayors often win re-election handily. Potential challenges include a unified left-right coalition, personal scandal, or national political wave favoring extremes ahead of the March 2026 two-round vote.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count. If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jean-Luc Moudenc's 100% implied probability as next Toulouse mayor after the 2026 municipal election reflects trader consensus on his formidable incumbency advantage, having secured 48% in the 2020 first round amid stable local governance on urban development and economic growth. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Moudenc yet to formally declare but widely expected to run again under Les Républicains, facing fragmented opposition from figures like National Rally's Lambert Meilhac and socialists François Briançon. This commanding position aligns with historical patterns where French city mayors often win re-election handily. Potential challenges include a unified left-right coalition, personal scandal, or national political wave favoring extremes ahead of the March 2026 two-round vote.

Jean-Luc Moudenc's 100% implied probability as next Toulouse mayor after the 2026 municipal election reflects trader consensus on his formidable incumbency advantage, having secured 48% in the 2020 first round amid stable local governance on urban development and economic growth. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Moudenc yet to formally declare but widely expected to run again under Les Républicains, facing fragmented opposition from figures like National Rally's Lambert Meilhac and socialists François Briançon. This commanding position aligns with historical patterns where French city mayors often win re-election handily. Potential challenges include a unified left-right coalition, personal scandal, or national political wave favoring extremes ahead of the March 2026 two-round vote.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"市政选举后的下一任图卢兹市长？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 10 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"让-吕克·穆登克"，概率为 100%，其次是"拉姆贝尔·梅伊阿克"，概率为 0%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"市政选举后的下一任图卢兹市长？"已产生 $304.5K 的总交易量（自Mar 6, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"市政选举后的下一任图卢兹市长？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 10 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"市政选举后的下一任图卢兹市长？"的当前领先者是"让-吕克·穆登克"，概率为 100%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"拉姆贝尔·梅伊阿克"，概率为 0%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"市政选举后的下一任图卢兹市长？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。