Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner at 26% implied probability for the 2027 French presidential election, driven by National Rally's sustained polling strength amid ongoing political instability following the 2024 snap legislative vote that produced a hung parliament. Édouard Philippe trails closely at 18.5%, buoyed by his centrist appeal as former prime minister and Horizons leader, while Marine Le Pen's odds have dipped to 8% after her recent conviction for misusing EU funds, potentially barring her candidacy pending appeal and elevating Bardella as RN standard-bearer. The race remains tight due to fragmentation across left-wing (Mélenchon at 9.5%), center-right, and emerging figures like Dominique de Villepin, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty in Macron's lame-duck term. Separation could emerge from Bayrou's new government's budget success stabilizing centrists, further RN gains in chaos, or decisive opinion polls ahead of the July 2025 dissolution deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于分组项标题:乔丹·巴德拉拉 27%
爱德华·菲利普 18%
让-吕克·梅朗雄 10%
分组项标题:玛丽娜·勒庞 8%
$16,489,111 交易量
$16,489,111 交易量

分组项标题:乔丹·巴德拉拉
27%

爱德华·菲利普
18%

让-吕克·梅朗雄
10%

分组项标题:玛丽娜·勒庞
8%

多米尼克·德维尔潘
7%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

莎拉·克纳福
3%

加布里埃尔·阿塔尔
3%

分组条目标题:让-卡斯泰
3%

弗朗索瓦·奥朗德
3%

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努
2%

大卫·利斯纳德
2%

热拉尔·达马南
1%

埃里克·泽穆尔
1%

胡安·布兰科
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

弗朗索瓦·贝鲁
1%

分组项标题:弗朗索瓦·鲁芬
1%

分组项标题:Marine Tondelier
1%

伊丽莎白·博恩
<1%

洛朗·沃奎耶
<1%

分组项标题:曼努埃尔·邦巴尔
<1%

泽维尔·贝特朗
<1%

奥利维耶·福尔
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

分组项标题:弗朗索瓦·阿塞勒诺
<1%

尼古拉斯·杜邦-奈昂
<1%

瓦莱丽·佩雷斯
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

米歇尔·巴尼耶
<1%

分组项标题:马蒂尔德·帕诺特
<1%

克莱芒斯·盖特
<1%
分组项标题:乔丹·巴德拉拉 27%
爱德华·菲利普 18%
让-吕克·梅朗雄 10%
分组项标题:玛丽娜·勒庞 8%
$16,489,111 交易量
$16,489,111 交易量

分组项标题:乔丹·巴德拉拉
27%

爱德华·菲利普
18%

让-吕克·梅朗雄
10%

分组项标题:玛丽娜·勒庞
8%

多米尼克·德维尔潘
7%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

莎拉·克纳福
3%

加布里埃尔·阿塔尔
3%

分组条目标题:让-卡斯泰
3%

弗朗索瓦·奥朗德
3%

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努
2%

大卫·利斯纳德
2%

热拉尔·达马南
1%

埃里克·泽穆尔
1%

胡安·布兰科
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

弗朗索瓦·贝鲁
1%

分组项标题:弗朗索瓦·鲁芬
1%

分组项标题:Marine Tondelier
1%

伊丽莎白·博恩
<1%

洛朗·沃奎耶
<1%

分组项标题:曼努埃尔·邦巴尔
<1%

泽维尔·贝特朗
<1%

奥利维耶·福尔
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

分组项标题:弗朗索瓦·阿塞勒诺
<1%

尼古拉斯·杜邦-奈昂
<1%

瓦莱丽·佩雷斯
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

米歇尔·巴尼耶
<1%

分组项标题:马蒂尔德·帕诺特
<1%

克莱芒斯·盖特
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市场开放时间: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner at 26% implied probability for the 2027 French presidential election, driven by National Rally's sustained polling strength amid ongoing political instability following the 2024 snap legislative vote that produced a hung parliament. Édouard Philippe trails closely at 18.5%, buoyed by his centrist appeal as former prime minister and Horizons leader, while Marine Le Pen's odds have dipped to 8% after her recent conviction for misusing EU funds, potentially barring her candidacy pending appeal and elevating Bardella as RN standard-bearer. The race remains tight due to fragmentation across left-wing (Mélenchon at 9.5%), center-right, and emerging figures like Dominique de Villepin, with trader sentiment reflecting uncertainty in Macron's lame-duck term. Separation could emerge from Bayrou's new government's budget success stabilizing centrists, further RN gains in chaos, or decisive opinion polls ahead of the July 2025 dissolution deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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