Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Democratic win in the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election at 92.5%, driven by the party's structural advantages: Governor Tim Walz's decisive 52%-45% reelection in 2022 amid a Democratic trifecta, strong urban and suburban turnout, and historical base rates where Democrats have won five of the last seven races. Early polling reinforces this, with no Republican polling above 40% against leading Democratic prospects like Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan or AG Keith Ellison. Realistic challenges include a high-profile GOP nominee consolidating support, a weakened Democratic field if Walz pursues national office post-VP run, or a national Republican wave shifting Midwest dynamics—though current evidence shows limited momentum for such shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$21,698 交易量
$21,698 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
8%
$21,698 交易量
$21,698 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
93%
共和党
$21,698 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
交易量
$21,698结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$21,698结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Democratic win in the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election at 92.5%, driven by the party's structural advantages: Governor Tim Walz's decisive 52%-45% reelection in 2022 amid a Democratic trifecta, strong urban and suburban turnout, and historical base rates where Democrats have won five of the last seven races. Early polling reinforces this, with no Republican polling above 40% against leading Democratic prospects like Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan or AG Keith Ellison. Realistic challenges include a high-profile GOP nominee consolidating support, a weakened Democratic field if Walz pursues national office post-VP run, or a national Republican wave shifting Midwest dynamics—though current evidence shows limited momentum for such shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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