Trader consensus favors state Sen. Mallory McMorrow at 53.5% implied probability to win Michigan's open Democratic Senate primary on August 4, driven by her surge in January Emerson College and other polls leading Rep. Haley Stevens and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, bolstered by Sen. Elizabeth Warren's March endorsement and recent calls for multiple debates amid a competitive three-way race. El-Sayed holds steady at 31.5% with progressive support and fundraising gains, though facing backlash over campaign events with streamer Hasan Piker and leaked audio on Iran's supreme leader that drew criticism from opponents and media in the past week. Stevens trails at 13.5% after slipping in polls, as differences on party priorities sharpen ahead of the primary in this battleground state.