Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position in Maryland's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus pricing a Democratic win at 92.5%. Ivey's strong 2024 general election landslide (88.4%) and primary dominance (84.9%), bolstered by superior fundraising ($426,000 cash on hand as of late 2025), overshadow a crowded June 23 Democratic primary field including challengers like Jonathan White and Jakeya Johnson. Republican nominee George McDermott, who lost decisively in 2024, faces steep barriers in this Prince George's County stronghold where Democrats took 85% in recent presidential results. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, scandals, legal challenges, or a massive national Republican midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$11,714 交易量
$11,714 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$11,714 交易量
$11,714 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,234 交易量
93%
共和党
$8,481 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position in Maryland's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus pricing a Democratic win at 92.5%. Ivey's strong 2024 general election landslide (88.4%) and primary dominance (84.9%), bolstered by superior fundraising ($426,000 cash on hand as of late 2025), overshadow a crowded June 23 Democratic primary field including challengers like Jonathan White and Jakeya Johnson. Republican nominee George McDermott, who lost decisively in 2024, faces steep barriers in this Prince George's County stronghold where Democrats took 85% in recent presidential results. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, scandals, legal challenges, or a massive national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$11,714结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position in Maryland's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus pricing a Democratic win at 92.5%. Ivey's strong 2024 general election landslide (88.4%) and primary dominance (84.9%), bolstered by superior fundraising ($426,000 cash on hand as of late 2025), overshadow a crowded June 23 Democratic primary field including challengers like Jonathan White and Jakeya Johnson. Republican nominee George McDermott, who lost decisively in 2024, faces steep barriers in this Prince George's County stronghold where Democrats took 85% in recent presidential results. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, scandals, legal challenges, or a massive national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,714结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position in Maryland's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+39 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus pricing a Democratic win at 92.5%. Ivey's strong 2024 general election landslide (88.4%) and primary dominance (84.9%), bolstered by superior fundraising ($426,000 cash on hand as of late 2025), overshadow a crowded June 23 Democratic primary field including challengers like Jonathan White and Jakeya Johnson. Republican nominee George McDermott, who lost decisively in 2024, faces steep barriers in this Prince George's County stronghold where Democrats took 85% in recent presidential results. Scenarios shifting odds include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, scandals, legal challenges, or a massive national Republican midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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