US federal prosecutors are pursuing an expanded case against ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores on drug trafficking, narcoterrorism, weapons, and newly added conspiracy-to-commit-torture charges tied to alleged repression of opponents. Both have pleaded not guilty and remain in federal custody in New York pending a June 2027 trial, with defense motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity grounds scheduled for argument in November 2026. Prosecutors counter that no immunity applies. These procedural hurdles, the remote trial timeline, and potential for plea negotiations or dismissal create substantial uncertainty, aligning with trader consensus around no prison time while still assigning meaningful probability to lengthy sentences upon conviction.