Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's prison sentence remains fragmented following his January 2026 U.S. capture from Caracas and indictment in New York federal court on narcoterrorism, cocaine trafficking, and money laundering charges carrying potential life terms. A March ruling denying defense motions to dismiss—citing improper arrest under UN Charter principles—bolstered long-sentence odds, with 60+ years leading at 34.5% per precedents like Manuel Noriega's 40-year term, yet 20–40 years (25.8%) and no prison time (22.5%) vie closely amid immunity claims, plea negotiations, and evidentiary disputes. Recent April revelations of a U.S. soldier's charges over insider betting on the raid underscore capture controversies fueling acquittal hopes. Trial scheduling or guilty plea could decisively shift probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于60年以上 35%
20-40 25.8%
无监禁 23%
40–60 10%
$527,018 交易量
$527,018 交易量
2027-12-31
无监禁
23%
少于20年
5%
20-40
26%
40–60
10%
60年以上
35%
60年以上 35%
20-40 25.8%
无监禁 23%
40–60 10%
$527,018 交易量
$527,018 交易量
2027-12-31
无监禁
$373,571 交易量
23%
少于20年
$57,253 交易量
5%
20-40
$48,069 交易量
26%
40–60
$15,908 交易量
10%
60年以上
$32,216 交易量
35%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's prison sentence remains fragmented following his January 2026 U.S. capture from Caracas and indictment in New York federal court on narcoterrorism, cocaine trafficking, and money laundering charges carrying potential life terms. A March ruling denying defense motions to dismiss—citing improper arrest under UN Charter principles—bolstered long-sentence odds, with 60+ years leading at 34.5% per precedents like Manuel Noriega's 40-year term, yet 20–40 years (25.8%) and no prison time (22.5%) vie closely amid immunity claims, plea negotiations, and evidentiary disputes. Recent April revelations of a U.S. soldier's charges over insider betting on the raid underscore capture controversies fueling acquittal hopes. Trial scheduling or guilty plea could decisively shift probabilities.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
交易量
$527,018结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's prison sentence remains fragmented following his January 2026 U.S. capture from Caracas and indictment in New York federal court on narcoterrorism, cocaine trafficking, and money laundering charges carrying potential life terms. A March ruling denying defense motions to dismiss—citing improper arrest under UN Charter principles—bolstered long-sentence odds, with 60+ years leading at 34.5% per precedents like Manuel Noriega's 40-year term, yet 20–40 years (25.8%) and no prison time (22.5%) vie closely amid immunity claims, plea negotiations, and evidentiary disputes. Recent April revelations of a U.S. soldier's charges over insider betting on the raid underscore capture controversies fueling acquittal hopes. Trial scheduling or guilty plea could decisively shift probabilities.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$527,018结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's prison sentence remains fragmented following his January 2026 U.S. capture from Caracas and indictment in New York federal court on narcoterrorism, cocaine trafficking, and money laundering charges carrying potential life terms. A March ruling denying defense motions to dismiss—citing improper arrest under UN Charter principles—bolstered long-sentence odds, with 60+ years leading at 34.5% per precedents like Manuel Noriega's 40-year term, yet 20–40 years (25.8%) and no prison time (22.5%) vie closely amid immunity claims, plea negotiations, and evidentiary disputes. Recent April revelations of a U.S. soldier's charges over insider betting on the raid underscore capture controversies fueling acquittal hopes. Trial scheduling or guilty plea could decisively shift probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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