Federal prosecutors advanced their narco-terrorism case against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro last week, as a New York judge rejected defense motions to dismiss charges and denied access to allegedly plundered state funds for legal fees, solidifying pre-trial proceedings on the January 2026 superseding indictment carrying mandatory minimums of 20 years and potential life sentences. Trader consensus remains tightly split, with no prison time edging 60+ months amid uncertainties over head-of-state immunity claims, jurisdictional challenges from his irregular US capture, possible plea deals, or extradition requests from Argentina and potential ICC involvement. A guilty plea, trial verdict, or sentencing hearing could sharply shift odds, while appellate success might preserve the no-prison lead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于无监禁 36%
60年以上 24%
40–60 14%
20-40 10.6%
$445,997 交易量
$445,997 交易量
2027-12-31
无监禁
36%
少于20年
4%
20-40
11%
40–60
14%
60年以上
30%
无监禁 36%
60年以上 24%
40–60 14%
20-40 10.6%
$445,997 交易量
$445,997 交易量
2027-12-31
无监禁
$349,462 交易量
36%
少于20年
$27,929 交易量
4%
20-40
$27,070 交易量
11%
40–60
$12,830 交易量
14%
60年以上
$28,706 交易量
30%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Federal prosecutors advanced their narco-terrorism case against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro last week, as a New York judge rejected defense motions to dismiss charges and denied access to allegedly plundered state funds for legal fees, solidifying pre-trial proceedings on the January 2026 superseding indictment carrying mandatory minimums of 20 years and potential life sentences. Trader consensus remains tightly split, with no prison time edging 60+ months amid uncertainties over head-of-state immunity claims, jurisdictional challenges from his irregular US capture, possible plea deals, or extradition requests from Argentina and potential ICC involvement. A guilty plea, trial verdict, or sentencing hearing could sharply shift odds, while appellate success might preserve the no-prison lead.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
交易量
$445,997结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Federal prosecutors advanced their narco-terrorism case against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro last week, as a New York judge rejected defense motions to dismiss charges and denied access to allegedly plundered state funds for legal fees, solidifying pre-trial proceedings on the January 2026 superseding indictment carrying mandatory minimums of 20 years and potential life sentences. Trader consensus remains tightly split, with no prison time edging 60+ months amid uncertainties over head-of-state immunity claims, jurisdictional challenges from his irregular US capture, possible plea deals, or extradition requests from Argentina and potential ICC involvement. A guilty plea, trial verdict, or sentencing hearing could sharply shift odds, while appellate success might preserve the no-prison lead.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$445,997结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Federal prosecutors advanced their narco-terrorism case against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro last week, as a New York judge rejected defense motions to dismiss charges and denied access to allegedly plundered state funds for legal fees, solidifying pre-trial proceedings on the January 2026 superseding indictment carrying mandatory minimums of 20 years and potential life sentences. Trader consensus remains tightly split, with no prison time edging 60+ months amid uncertainties over head-of-state immunity claims, jurisdictional challenges from his irregular US capture, possible plea deals, or extradition requests from Argentina and potential ICC involvement. A guilty plea, trial verdict, or sentencing hearing could sharply shift odds, while appellate success might preserve the no-prison lead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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