Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming advanced to the June 27, 2026, Republican Senate primary runoff against Rep. Julia Letlow after placing second in the May primary and eliminating incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy. Traders price the probability he drops out before the June 26 resolution deadline at roughly 22 percent because Fleming has shown no public signals of withdrawal or campaign suspension, continues active outreach including debate challenges, and previously declined reported administration job offers tied to exiting the race. With the runoff weeks away and Fleming maintaining a competitive position despite lower spending, the market consensus reflects the absence of recent catalysts that would prompt an exit.