Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating's commanding position in Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+6 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic House win. Keating's recent 13-point general election victory in 2024 over Republican Dan Sullivan, coupled with $569,000 cash-on-hand through late 2025 versus GOP primary candidate Robert MacAllister's $65,000, reinforces this edge despite the district's relative conservatism within Massachusetts. A January primary challenge from Democrat Craig Swallow has not shifted dynamics. Realistic challenges include a messy Democratic primary outcome weakening the nominee, a Keating scandal, or a strong national Republican midterm wave, ahead of September 1 primaries and the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
91%
共和党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
91%
共和党
$0 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating's commanding position in Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+6 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic House win. Keating's recent 13-point general election victory in 2024 over Republican Dan Sullivan, coupled with $569,000 cash-on-hand through late 2025 versus GOP primary candidate Robert MacAllister's $65,000, reinforces this edge despite the district's relative conservatism within Massachusetts. A January primary challenge from Democrat Craig Swallow has not shifted dynamics. Realistic challenges include a messy Democratic primary outcome weakening the nominee, a Keating scandal, or a strong national Republican midterm wave, ahead of September 1 primaries and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating's commanding position in Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+6 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic House win. Keating's recent 13-point general election victory in 2024 over Republican Dan Sullivan, coupled with $569,000 cash-on-hand through late 2025 versus GOP primary candidate Robert MacAllister's $65,000, reinforces this edge despite the district's relative conservatism within Massachusetts. A January primary challenge from Democrat Craig Swallow has not shifted dynamics. Realistic challenges include a messy Democratic primary outcome weakening the nominee, a Keating scandal, or a strong national Republican midterm wave, ahead of September 1 primaries and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating's commanding position in Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+6 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus at 91% for a Democratic House win. Keating's recent 13-point general election victory in 2024 over Republican Dan Sullivan, coupled with $569,000 cash-on-hand through late 2025 versus GOP primary candidate Robert MacAllister's $65,000, reinforces this edge despite the district's relative conservatism within Massachusetts. A January primary challenge from Democrat Craig Swallow has not shifted dynamics. Realistic challenges include a messy Democratic primary outcome weakening the nominee, a Keating scandal, or a strong national Republican midterm wave, ahead of September 1 primaries and the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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