Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a competitive GOP primary on May 16 against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, with March polls showing a fragmented field—Cassidy leading in his internal survey (35% to Letlow's 24%), Letlow ahead in hers after highlighting the endorsement—likely setting up a June 27 runoff. Louisiana's deep-red status, where Republicans have held both Senate seats since 2015 and Trump won by 25 points in 2024, positions the primary victor as a lock for the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus implying 89.5% odds for a Republican win amid negligible Democratic challengers and no recent polling shifts favoring Democrats. Gov. Jeff Landry's backing of Letlow and fresh anti-Cassidy endorsements, like America First's for Fleming on March 31, intensify primary dynamics without altering general election math.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
90%
民主党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$1,780 交易量
90%
民主党
$2,155 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a competitive GOP primary on May 16 against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, with March polls showing a fragmented field—Cassidy leading in his internal survey (35% to Letlow's 24%), Letlow ahead in hers after highlighting the endorsement—likely setting up a June 27 runoff. Louisiana's deep-red status, where Republicans have held both Senate seats since 2015 and Trump won by 25 points in 2024, positions the primary victor as a lock for the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus implying 89.5% odds for a Republican win amid negligible Democratic challengers and no recent polling shifts favoring Democrats. Gov. Jeff Landry's backing of Letlow and fresh anti-Cassidy endorsements, like America First's for Fleming on March 31, intensify primary dynamics without altering general election math.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$3,935结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a competitive GOP primary on May 16 against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, with March polls showing a fragmented field—Cassidy leading in his internal survey (35% to Letlow's 24%), Letlow ahead in hers after highlighting the endorsement—likely setting up a June 27 runoff. Louisiana's deep-red status, where Republicans have held both Senate seats since 2015 and Trump won by 25 points in 2024, positions the primary victor as a lock for the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus implying 89.5% odds for a Republican win amid negligible Democratic challengers and no recent polling shifts favoring Democrats. Gov. Jeff Landry's backing of Letlow and fresh anti-Cassidy endorsements, like America First's for Fleming on March 31, intensify primary dynamics without altering general election math.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$3,935结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a competitive GOP primary on May 16 against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, with March polls showing a fragmented field—Cassidy leading in his internal survey (35% to Letlow's 24%), Letlow ahead in hers after highlighting the endorsement—likely setting up a June 27 runoff. Louisiana's deep-red status, where Republicans have held both Senate seats since 2015 and Trump won by 25 points in 2024, positions the primary victor as a lock for the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus implying 89.5% odds for a Republican win amid negligible Democratic challengers and no recent polling shifts favoring Democrats. Gov. Jeff Landry's backing of Letlow and fresh anti-Cassidy endorsements, like America First's for Fleming on March 31, intensify primary dynamics without altering general election math.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题