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政治·主要

KY-06共和党初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·主要

KY-06共和党初选获胜者

拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多 43%

瑞恩·多特森 25.4%

格雷格·普卢钦斯基 4%

加文·所罗门 <1%

Polymarket
NEW

拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多 43%

瑞恩·多特森 25.4%

格雷格·普卢钦斯基 4%

加文·所罗门 <1%

Polymarket
NEW

拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多

$0 交易量

43%

瑞恩·多特森

$7,590 交易量

33%

格雷格·普卢钦斯基

$0 交易量

4%

加文·所罗门

$0 交易量

<1%

亚当·佩雷斯·阿奎特

$0 交易量

27%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary set for May 19, former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado holds a trader consensus edge at 44% implied probability, driven by his fundraising lead and launch of the race's first TV ad on March 25, bolstering his establishment profile in the open seat left by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate run. State Rep. Ryan Dotson, at 30.7%, has slipped amid a March 17 scandal tying his campaign email to the Ashley Madison data leak, undercutting his pastor and family values messaging despite shared Trump support voiced in debates. Adam Perez Arquette, at 30.3%, sustains viability in the fragmented field, with no public polls to guide sentiment as the closely contested race awaits potential late shifts from endorsements or voter turnout.

In Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary set for May 19, former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado holds a trader consensus edge at 44% implied probability, driven by his fundraising lead and launch of the race's first TV ad on March 25, bolstering his establishment profile in the open seat left by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate run. State Rep. Ryan Dotson, at 30.7%, has slipped amid a March 17 scandal tying his campaign email to the Ashley Madison data leak, undercutting his pastor and family values messaging despite shared Trump support voiced in debates. Adam Perez Arquette, at 30.3%, sustains viability in the fragmented field, with no public polls to guide sentiment as the closely contested race awaits potential late shifts from endorsements or voter turnout.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary set for May 19, former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado holds a trader consensus edge at 44% implied probability, driven by his fundraising lead and launch of the race's first TV ad on March 25, bolstering his establishment profile in the open seat left by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate run. State Rep. Ryan Dotson, at 30.7%, has slipped amid a March 17 scandal tying his campaign email to the Ashley Madison data leak, undercutting his pastor and family values messaging despite shared Trump support voiced in debates. Adam Perez Arquette, at 30.3%, sustains viability in the fragmented field, with no public polls to guide sentiment as the closely contested race awaits potential late shifts from endorsements or voter turnout.

In Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary set for May 19, former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado holds a trader consensus edge at 44% implied probability, driven by his fundraising lead and launch of the race's first TV ad on March 25, bolstering his establishment profile in the open seat left by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate run. State Rep. Ryan Dotson, at 30.7%, has slipped amid a March 17 scandal tying his campaign email to the Ashley Madison data leak, undercutting his pastor and family values messaging despite shared Trump support voiced in debates. Adam Perez Arquette, at 30.3%, sustains viability in the fragmented field, with no public polls to guide sentiment as the closely contested race awaits potential late shifts from endorsements or voter turnout.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"KY-06共和党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 5 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多"，概率为 43%，其次是"瑞恩·多特森"，概率为 33%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 43¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 43%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"KY-06共和党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Dec 18, 2025上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"KY-06共和党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 5 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"KY-06共和党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多"，概率为 43%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 43%。紧随其后的结果是"瑞恩·多特森"，概率为 33%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"KY-06共和党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。