Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low expectations for the Italy judicial reform referendum to pass, driven primarily by anticipated insufficient voter turnout to meet the 50% quorum threshold required for abrogative referendums. Recent polls from Ipsos and SWG indicate participation likely below 35%, echoing past referendums invalidated by similar shortfalls in 2022 and earlier. Major parties, including Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy and the Democratic Party, have urged abstention, diluting mobilization efforts by referendum promoters like the Radical Party. Official campaign data shows signature validations but weak public engagement, with no major endorsements shifting sentiment ahead of the June 9 vote, justifying the 65% "No" implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$121,870 交易量
$121,870 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$121,870 交易量
$121,870 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$121,870结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.This market refers to a constitutional referendum expected to be held in Italy in the second half of March 2026 concerning proposed amendments to the Constitution of Italy related to the organization and functioning of the judiciary.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Italian judicial reform constitutional referendum (Nordio Reform Referendum), or a substantively equivalent referendum on the same constitutional amendments, is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in the nationwide referendum currently expected to be held in March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if no qualifying referendum approving the judicial reform is passed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified referendum results as published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or an equivalent official Italian government authority. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
交易量
$121,870结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low expectations for the Italy judicial reform referendum to pass, driven primarily by anticipated insufficient voter turnout to meet the 50% quorum threshold required for abrogative referendums. Recent polls from Ipsos and SWG indicate participation likely below 35%, echoing past referendums invalidated by similar shortfalls in 2022 and earlier. Major parties, including Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy and the Democratic Party, have urged abstention, diluting mobilization efforts by referendum promoters like the Radical Party. Official campaign data shows signature validations but weak public engagement, with no major endorsements shifting sentiment ahead of the June 9 vote, justifying the 65% "No" implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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