Incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's (R) commanding 90.5% implied probability in the ID-02 House race reflects the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+18) and his two-decade tenure, underscored by a dominant May primary win over challenger Steve Yates amid conservative pushback on Ukraine aid votes. Democrat David Roth trails as a perennial low-fundraising candidate in a seat untouched by Democrats since 1992, with forecasters unanimously rating it Solid Republican. Absent recent polling shifts or catalysts in the past 30 days, trader consensus prices in minimal upset risk ahead of the November 5 general election. A dramatic scandal, health issue for Simpson, or seismic national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
91%
民主党
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's (R) commanding 90.5% implied probability in the ID-02 House race reflects the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+18) and his two-decade tenure, underscored by a dominant May primary win over challenger Steve Yates amid conservative pushback on Ukraine aid votes. Democrat David Roth trails as a perennial low-fundraising candidate in a seat untouched by Democrats since 1992, with forecasters unanimously rating it Solid Republican. Absent recent polling shifts or catalysts in the past 30 days, trader consensus prices in minimal upset risk ahead of the November 5 general election. A dramatic scandal, health issue for Simpson, or seismic national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's (R) commanding 90.5% implied probability in the ID-02 House race reflects the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+18) and his two-decade tenure, underscored by a dominant May primary win over challenger Steve Yates amid conservative pushback on Ukraine aid votes. Democrat David Roth trails as a perennial low-fundraising candidate in a seat untouched by Democrats since 1992, with forecasters unanimously rating it Solid Republican. Absent recent polling shifts or catalysts in the past 30 days, trader consensus prices in minimal upset risk ahead of the November 5 general election. A dramatic scandal, health issue for Simpson, or seismic national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mike Simpson's (R) commanding 90.5% implied probability in the ID-02 House race reflects the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+18) and his two-decade tenure, underscored by a dominant May primary win over challenger Steve Yates amid conservative pushback on Ukraine aid votes. Democrat David Roth trails as a perennial low-fundraising candidate in a seat untouched by Democrats since 1992, with forecasters unanimously rating it Solid Republican. Absent recent polling shifts or catalysts in the past 30 days, trader consensus prices in minimal upset risk ahead of the November 5 general election. A dramatic scandal, health issue for Simpson, or seismic national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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