Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, surpassing economist medians near 2.4% from the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections, which upgraded forecasts amid robust AI-related capital expenditures and resilient private domestic demand. This positioning reflects optimism despite Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.7% annualized and February's nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs, pushing unemployment to 4.4%; lower brackets like 1.5–2.0% at 13.3% capture recession risks from oil price spikes tied to Middle East tensions. Key catalysts ahead include the March 2026 jobs report on April 3 and Q1 GDP advance estimate on April 30.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于>2.5% 62%
1.5–2.0% 13.4%
2.0–2.5% 11%
低于0.5% 10.0%
$25,066 交易量
$25,066 交易量
2027-01-29
低于0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
7%
1.5–2.0%
13%
2.0–2.5%
11%
>2.5%
62%
>2.5% 62%
1.5–2.0% 13.4%
2.0–2.5% 11%
低于0.5% 10.0%
$25,066 交易量
$25,066 交易量
2027-01-29
低于0.5%
$3,681 交易量
10%
0.5–1.0%
$14,955 交易量
4%
1.0–1.5%
$1,432 交易量
7%
1.5–2.0%
$0 交易量
13%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 交易量
11%
>2.5%
$3,660 交易量
62%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, surpassing economist medians near 2.4% from the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections, which upgraded forecasts amid robust AI-related capital expenditures and resilient private domestic demand. This positioning reflects optimism despite Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.7% annualized and February's nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs, pushing unemployment to 4.4%; lower brackets like 1.5–2.0% at 13.3% capture recession risks from oil price spikes tied to Middle East tensions. Key catalysts ahead include the March 2026 jobs report on April 3 and Q1 GDP advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$25,066结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, surpassing economist medians near 2.4% from the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections, which upgraded forecasts amid robust AI-related capital expenditures and resilient private domestic demand. This positioning reflects optimism despite Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.7% annualized and February's nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs, pushing unemployment to 4.4%; lower brackets like 1.5–2.0% at 13.3% capture recession risks from oil price spikes tied to Middle East tensions. Key catalysts ahead include the March 2026 jobs report on April 3 and Q1 GDP advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$25,066结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61.5% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, surpassing economist medians near 2.4% from the Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections, which upgraded forecasts amid robust AI-related capital expenditures and resilient private domestic demand. This positioning reflects optimism despite Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.7% annualized and February's nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs, pushing unemployment to 4.4%; lower brackets like 1.5–2.0% at 13.3% capture recession risks from oil price spikes tied to Middle East tensions. Key catalysts ahead include the March 2026 jobs report on April 3 and Q1 GDP advance estimate on April 30.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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