Trader consensus in the AZ-01 Republican primary heavily favors former NFL kicker Jay Feely at 70.5%, reflecting his commanding fundraising lead with over $1 million raised and nearly $686,000 cash on hand as of late 2025 filings, far outpacing rivals like John Trobough ($463,000 raised) and Joseph Chaplik ($249,000). The open seat, created by incumbent David Schweikert's September 2025 shift to the gubernatorial primary, has drawn a crowded field finalized after the March 23 filing deadline, but Feely's high name recognition from his Arizona Cardinals tenure and President Trump's rare dual endorsement alongside Gina Swoboda (now withdrawn) in January solidify his frontrunner status. Chaplik, a former state representative who resigned in February to focus full-time, trails at 6.5% amid no public polls; the July 21 primary looms as key holdouts or late endorsements could shift dynamics in this toss-up district.