Incumbent Republican David Schweikert's departure for the Arizona gubernatorial race has left AZ-01—an R+1 toss-up district per Cook Political Report—as a prime battleground, but trader consensus prices Democrats at 62.5% to win the November general election, reflecting frontrunner Amish Shah's dominance in the February Highground Democratic primary poll (33% to Marlene Galán-Woods' 11%, 49% undecided) and his fresh March 27 endorsement from 314 Action Fund. Shah's near-victory over Schweikert in 2024 (48.1%) bolsters his viability amid strong Democratic fundraising. The fragmented GOP primary, post-Trump-backed Gina Swoboda's withdrawal, features contenders like Jay Feely without a clear leader, contributing to the 35% Republican odds ahead of the July 21 primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
63%
共和党
35%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
63%
共和党
$0 交易量
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican David Schweikert's departure for the Arizona gubernatorial race has left AZ-01—an R+1 toss-up district per Cook Political Report—as a prime battleground, but trader consensus prices Democrats at 62.5% to win the November general election, reflecting frontrunner Amish Shah's dominance in the February Highground Democratic primary poll (33% to Marlene Galán-Woods' 11%, 49% undecided) and his fresh March 27 endorsement from 314 Action Fund. Shah's near-victory over Schweikert in 2024 (48.1%) bolsters his viability amid strong Democratic fundraising. The fragmented GOP primary, post-Trump-backed Gina Swoboda's withdrawal, features contenders like Jay Feely without a clear leader, contributing to the 35% Republican odds ahead of the July 21 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican David Schweikert's departure for the Arizona gubernatorial race has left AZ-01—an R+1 toss-up district per Cook Political Report—as a prime battleground, but trader consensus prices Democrats at 62.5% to win the November general election, reflecting frontrunner Amish Shah's dominance in the February Highground Democratic primary poll (33% to Marlene Galán-Woods' 11%, 49% undecided) and his fresh March 27 endorsement from 314 Action Fund. Shah's near-victory over Schweikert in 2024 (48.1%) bolsters his viability amid strong Democratic fundraising. The fragmented GOP primary, post-Trump-backed Gina Swoboda's withdrawal, features contenders like Jay Feely without a clear leader, contributing to the 35% Republican odds ahead of the July 21 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican David Schweikert's departure for the Arizona gubernatorial race has left AZ-01—an R+1 toss-up district per Cook Political Report—as a prime battleground, but trader consensus prices Democrats at 62.5% to win the November general election, reflecting frontrunner Amish Shah's dominance in the February Highground Democratic primary poll (33% to Marlene Galán-Woods' 11%, 49% undecided) and his fresh March 27 endorsement from 314 Action Fund. Shah's near-victory over Schweikert in 2024 (48.1%) bolsters his viability amid strong Democratic fundraising. The fragmented GOP primary, post-Trump-backed Gina Swoboda's withdrawal, features contenders like Jay Feely without a clear leader, contributing to the 35% Republican odds ahead of the July 21 primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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